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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Chanchu in cool waters
      Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM Attachment (373 downloads)

Was very busy at work today and didn't get too much chance to take a look. Good to wait for the first vis sat image anyway, and, looking at the 1km zoom from an hour ago, Chanchu's organization has improved considerably from this morning. And there continues to be good radial outflow on the west but what appears to be some shear on the NE. With the convection in the center, the eyewall is prominent again but the eye continues to be covered with a thin cirrus shield. I think the winds this morning were stronger than I realized at the time, looking at the lopsided convection in the CDO. Even though CIMSS AODT rates the winds at 90 kts, the current range of 105-110 kts in the JTWC forecast seems believeable looking at the visual and IR. Microwave passes throughout the day have mostly missed.

The core has become much smaller and IR shows that intense convection has almost completely wrapped around the core again. There is quite a bit of convection in the spiral bands outside the core as opposed to yesterday's Cat 4 structure. With the spiral bands the typhoon pretty much takes up the entire basin. JTWC warning #9 has expanded the windfields at landfall accordingly.

The last six hours the upper level winds assoc with the typhoon have curved a dent into the jet to the north, an outflow channel. I think this would be another indication of a strong storm.

The storm is at about 17N. Maybe because it is moving and the SSTs are still good enough to maintain strength, perhaps upwelling was the culprit earlier. Which makes the intensity forecast interesting. JTWC now has it steadily weakening, but if it continues moving at this rate, then SSTs are good almost to the shoreline, I think. So it may be able to maintain 100-110 kts until close to landfall. Heat content falls off drastically north of 17-18N, so either it made a recovery because it hit a spot with some reasonably deep heat content this afternoon, and intensity will slide down again once it moves further north, past this area, or, SSTs at this current speed are enough to maintain the current intensity, without significant heat content.

The model plots have converged and this is the tightest they have ever been so there is good confidence in the track.

* * * * * *
9:30pm update -- Warning #30 is out. The track has been shifted very slightly a little east...essentially in the noise. The initial sustained winds are raised from 110kt to 115kt (reflecting the improved sat signature). Landfall is shown at 80kts which is just shy of Cat 2 intensity, with ET beginning at that time.

Finally a microwave pass did catch part of the center and it's pretty interesting -- I'll attach it (someone please PM me how to add an image into a post!).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon May 15 2006 10:44 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Chanchu Domino Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 07:19 AM
. * * Re: TS Chanchu Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Domino   Thu May 11 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Barbiemanila   Fri May 12 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Fri May 12 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy Margie   Sun May 14 2006 09:52 AM
. * * Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Philippines Aftermath for Chanchu aka Caloy Domino   Sun May 14 2006 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Hannu   Mon May 15 2006 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Deep Surge   Mon May 15 2006 07:07 PM
. * * Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Mon May 15 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Clark   Mon May 15 2006 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Deep Surge   Tue May 16 2006 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 07:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Margie   Tue May 16 2006 05:30 PM
. * * Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update Margie   Thu May 18 2006 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu update malt-teaser   Wed May 17 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Chanchu in cool waters Hannu   Tue May 16 2006 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing HanKFranK   Sun May 14 2006 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Clark   Mon May 15 2006 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Mon May 15 2006 10:16 AM
. * * lesser storm HanKFranK   Mon May 15 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: lesser storm malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Mon May 15 2006 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing malt-teaser   Mon May 15 2006 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing alyssum   Tue May 16 2006 12:19 AM
. * * Chanchu is done Margie   Mon May 15 2006 08:12 AM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Tiff   Sun May 14 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu bombing Margie   Sun May 14 2006 11:24 PM
. * * Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri May 12 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Margie   Fri May 12 2006 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Have handheld weather station, will travel? Domino   Fri May 12 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Typhoon Chanchu aka Tropical Storm Caloy hockeyucf   Thu May 11 2006 12:22 PM

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