this's the wave i've been yammering about for about a week. it looks impressive right now, but if it does anything it'll probably get shunted into belize or something. some of the earlier global runs had a stronger weakness near texas that could draw it up from there... later runs are showing heights building across the northern caribbean all the way to the yucatan and driving the wave straight west later in the week. probably too far west for a significant system to turn up. don't think it's chances are all that high. model support has been fickle to say the least. upper winds should be mighty friendly on it by about thursday, though... so i guess nothing is impossible. mind we've already had an above average june. the waves out over the altantic look more like august waves than june ones. gfs is building a low with either one... some of the other globals see similar things. the front one at 40w is quite impressive if not a convective marvel, and is more or less on track to move over warm ssts under generally low shear. broad and dealing with plenty of dry air (and some pushy trades as well), so anything out of it would be slow. the one further east is probably model voodoo like clark says. if it got detached from the itcz like shown it would also run up over cool ssts and mess itself anyway. hasn't been a tropical storm east of the islands in june since 1979; it just isn't something to bank on. june 2000 and 2003 both produced june depressions that lasted a couple of forecast cycles, however. harder to brush this kind of stuff off after last year, though. HF 2232z13june
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