wave south of hispaniola is speeding. it's probably going too fast to do much. might be more interesting when it slows down, which should be much further west near central america. the other two in the open ocean are looking none the better, but still impressive for this time of year. a major convective blowup could spark something, but evolution will be quite slow. climatological odds are against both. alberto came at the tail end of an SOI negative pulse in the pacific... which is pretty much a shift from the equatorial trades from easterly to backing westerly. backing westerly winds cause a ton of convergence.. and often come in tandem with an mjo wave pulse. in alberto's case that's pretty much what crunched things up and let the system develop. SOI is down again, so in a week or two we may have another pattern-induced system. the ones in the meanwhile will have to hack things out the old fashioned way, which is very hard to do outside of the much improved conditions for waves to develop that occur in august-september. HF 0236z15june
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