Took a peek at the 12Z CMC and 18Z NGP which are similar in difting a fairly stout inverted surface trough westward into/across Florida somtime during the THU-FRI period. 12Z/18Z GFS is quite a bit drier for ECFL during that time frame since it hangs the weak trough out to the east...and doesn't allow it to rach the coast until FRI night/SAT.
However...all the global guidance is in decent agreement w/r/t the H50 pattern...which shows a pretty stout ridge developing over the the eastern CONUS thru 12Z THU. This feature is progged to stretch eastward into the western ATLC through FRI and then begin to weaken around 12Z SAT.
The SFC-H50 pattern is not going to allow any sort of shallow low-mid level system to move northward a la the 18Z NAM/DGEX which is off on it's own spinning up a TS and moving it NW then N into SC/NC by SAT night/SUN.
The H30-H20 pattern over that area switches from diffluent/divergent SW flow to somewhat convergent N-NW flow as the deforming TUTT type low which has been stretched across central/southern FL begins to push eastward through late week.
All-in-all, it doesn't look like a pattern terribly conducive for a TC to form. SFC pressures aren't that low to begin with, and the synoptic-aided ascent which is helping to boost convection is forecast to weaken. At this point, I'd call for, at best, a very weak surface trough to approach the FL east coast through late week, which would be pretty welcome should it come to fruition as it would aid diurnal TSTM activity over the state.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 65768
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center