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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 329 (Nicholas) , Major: 345 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1399 (Michael) Major: 1399 (Michael)

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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist

Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida

Re: bahamas area
Tue Jun 20 2006 07:38 PM

Just to add my two bits to the fire here....

Took a peek at the 12Z CMC and 18Z NGP which are similar in difting a fairly stout inverted surface trough westward into/across Florida somtime during the THU-FRI period. 12Z/18Z GFS is quite a bit drier for ECFL during that time frame since it hangs the weak trough out to the east...and doesn't allow it to rach the coast until FRI night/SAT.

However...all the global guidance is in decent agreement w/r/t the H50 pattern...which shows a pretty stout ridge developing over the the eastern CONUS thru 12Z THU. This feature is progged to stretch eastward into the western ATLC through FRI and then begin to weaken around 12Z SAT.

The SFC-H50 pattern is not going to allow any sort of shallow low-mid level system to move northward a la the 18Z NAM/DGEX which is off on it's own spinning up a TS and moving it NW then N into SC/NC by SAT night/SUN.

The H30-H20 pattern over that area switches from diffluent/divergent SW flow to somewhat convergent N-NW flow as the deforming TUTT type low which has been stretched across central/southern FL begins to push eastward through late week.

All-in-all, it doesn't look like a pattern terribly conducive for a TC to form. SFC pressures aren't that low to begin with, and the synoptic-aided ascent which is helping to boost convection is forecast to weaken. At this point, I'd call for, at best, a very weak surface trough to approach the FL east coast through late week, which would be pretty welcome should it come to fruition as it would aid diurnal TSTM activity over the state.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	MikeC	Tue Jun 20 2006 07:38 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Ron Basso	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:40 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Ron Basso	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:43 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	ElizabethH	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:54 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Margie	Fri Jun 23 2006 09:24 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Tony Cristaldi	Fri Jun 23 2006 09:53 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Margie	Fri Jun 23 2006 10:21 AM
Beryl slowly finally starting to organize!	reedzone	Fri Jun 23 2006 10:45 AM
Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize!	NewWatcher	Fri Jun 23 2006 10:51 AM
Re: Beryl slowly finally starting to organize!	scottsvb	Fri Jun 23 2006 11:00 AM
No longer a trough?	Rich B	Fri Jun 23 2006 11:04 AM
Re: No longer a trough?	Margie	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:05 PM
Re: No longer a trough?	Rich B	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:14 PM
Re: No longer a trough?	Tony Cristaldi	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:21 PM
Re: No longer a trough?	firestar_1	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:39 PM
TD or Sub-TD?	Rich B	Fri Jun 23 2006 11:23 AM
Re: TD or Sub-TD?	Lsr1166	Fri Jun 23 2006 11:58 AM
Re: TD or Sub-TD?	Sheeper	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:25 PM
91L Invest	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 09:20 AM
Re: 91L Invest	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 09:32 AM
Re: 91L Invest	NewWatcher	Fri Jun 23 2006 09:33 AM
I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	reedzone	Fri Jun 23 2006 02:03 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 02:12 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	reedzone	Fri Jun 23 2006 02:14 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Bloodstar	Fri Jun 23 2006 05:28 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 06:42 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Rich B	Fri Jun 23 2006 07:14 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	ElizabethH	Fri Jun 23 2006 07:34 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	HURRICANELONNY	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:14 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Multi-Decadal Signal	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:37 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	madmumbler	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:03 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Lee-Delray	Fri Jun 23 2006 08:33 AM
Re: I see a new and closed LLC on the disturbance!	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 07:21 AM
Bahamian Showers	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 07:12 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Lee-Delray	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:41 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Ron Basso	Wed Jun 21 2006 09:01 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	madmumbler	Wed Jun 21 2006 01:28 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	NewWatcher	Wed Jun 21 2006 01:31 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	MapMaster	Wed Jun 21 2006 09:44 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	scottsvb	Wed Jun 21 2006 12:11 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	tomahawk	Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Fla. native in Ala.	Wed Jun 21 2006 02:53 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Fleckivan	Wed Jun 21 2006 03:04 PM
A newbie question	clueless	Wed Jun 21 2006 03:44 PM
Re: A newbie question	madmumbler	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:34 PM
Re: A newbie question	BullitNutz	Wed Jun 21 2006 05:26 PM
Local News Interested	Wingman51	Wed Jun 21 2006 05:31 PM
Re: Local News Interested	Lou123	Wed Jun 21 2006 06:37 PM
Re: A newbie question	nl	Wed Jun 21 2006 04:55 PM
Re: A newbie question	MapMaster	Wed Jun 21 2006 05:09 PM
Re: A newbie question	clueless	Wed Jun 21 2006 05:21 PM
Re: A newbie question	MapMaster	Wed Jun 21 2006 05:58 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 21 2006 01:19 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	madmumbler	Wed Jun 21 2006 01:22 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	ElizabethH	Wed Jun 21 2006 01:36 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Storm Cooper	Wed Jun 21 2006 06:56 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Lou123	Thu Jun 22 2006 06:33 PM
Twins...again??	danielw	Wed Jun 21 2006 07:20 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Tony Cristaldi	Wed Jun 21 2006 07:26 PM
Re: Twins...again??	danielw	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:59 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Lou123	Wed Jun 21 2006 09:47 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Margie	Wed Jun 21 2006 10:12 PM
Re: Twins...again??	dem05	Wed Jun 21 2006 10:41 PM
Re: Twins...again??	madmumbler	Thu Jun 22 2006 07:21 AM
Re: Twins...again??	HanKFranK	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:14 AM
Possible invest....	twizted sizter	Thu Jun 22 2006 10:17 AM
Re: Possible invest....	ftlaudbob	Thu Jun 22 2006 10:51 AM
Re: Off SA	MapMaster	Thu Jun 22 2006 11:23 AM
Re:	Lsr1166	Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 AM
slight change of tone	HanKFranK	Thu Jun 22 2006 11:55 AM
Re: slight change of tone	madmumbler	Thu Jun 22 2006 12:46 PM
Re: slight change of tone	Bill-n-StPeteFL	Thu Jun 22 2006 12:30 PM
Re: slight change of tone	madmumbler	Thu Jun 22 2006 12:50 PM
Re: slight change of tone	NewWatcher	Thu Jun 22 2006 01:08 PM
Bahama Disturbance	ElizabethH	Thu Jun 22 2006 01:21 PM
Re: Bahama Disturbance	john2	Thu Jun 22 2006 01:43 PM
Re: Bahama Disturbance	Rich B	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:12 PM
Re: Bahama Disturbance	Storm Hunter	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:15 PM
Re: slight change of tone	doug	Thu Jun 22 2006 12:48 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 21 2006 10:11 PM
Re: Twins...again??	leetdan	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:16 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Storm Hunter	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:19 PM
Re: Twins...again??	madmumbler	Thu Jun 22 2006 05:45 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Rich B	Thu Jun 22 2006 06:18 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Tony Cristaldi	Thu Jun 22 2006 06:44 PM
POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA	SebastianLou	Thu Jun 22 2006 07:09 PM
Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA	Storm Cooper	Thu Jun 22 2006 07:16 PM
Re: POSSIBLE DEPRESSION MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA	craigm	Thu Jun 22 2006 08:22 PM
Re: Twins...again??	SebastianLou	Thu Jun 22 2006 06:56 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Storm Hunter	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:47 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Lee-Delray	Thu Jun 22 2006 02:54 PM
little things that matter	HanKFranK	Thu Jun 22 2006 03:45 PM
Re: little things that matter	Clark	Thu Jun 22 2006 09:13 PM
Bahamas stuff	Randrew	Thu Jun 22 2006 10:45 PM
Re: Bahamas stuff	john2	Thu Jun 22 2006 11:28 PM
Re: Bahamas stuff	HanKFranK	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:36 AM
Re: Bahamas stuff	Randrew	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:53 AM
Tropical Storm Beryl in the making and more...	reedzone	Fri Jun 23 2006 12:28 AM
you said this the other day HF	LoisCane	Thu Jun 22 2006 08:20 PM
Re: you said this the other day HF	Tony Cristaldi	Thu Jun 22 2006 08:55 PM
Roundup	danielw	Thu Jun 22 2006 09:33 PM
Re: TAFB and the ECMWF	Storm Cooper	Thu Jun 22 2006 09:09 PM
Re: TAFB and the ECMWF	Clark	Thu Jun 22 2006 09:15 PM
Re: little things that matter	Tony Cristaldi	Thu Jun 22 2006 04:37 PM
Re: little things that matter	reedzone	Thu Jun 22 2006 05:23 PM
Re: little things that matter	MapMaster	Thu Jun 22 2006 05:34 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Beaumont, TX	Thu Jun 22 2006 03:38 PM
Re: Twins...again??	madmumbler	Thu Jun 22 2006 07:13 AM
Re: Twins...again??	Margie	Wed Jun 21 2006 07:45 PM
Re: Twins...again?? Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	Lou123	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:08 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Margie	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:13 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Lou123	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:17 PM
Re: Twins...again??	StormHound	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
27N 73W	Bloodstar	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:37 PM
Heights	danielw	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:52 PM
Re: 27N 73W	madmumbler	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:45 PM
Re: Twins...again??	GuppieGrouper	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:30 PM
Re: Twins...again??	Lee-Delray	Wed Jun 21 2006 08:28 PM
Re: Twins...again??	danielw	Wed Jun 21 2006 07:40 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	NewWatcher	Wed Jun 21 2006 02:11 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	vonkamp	Wed Jun 21 2006 02:51 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Wed Jun 21 2006 02:52 PM
00Z Wednesday Model rounds	danielw	Wed Jun 21 2006 02:01 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 21 2006 01:35 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Thomas Giella	Tue Jun 20 2006 09:09 PM
Re: bahamas area	Cat 5orBust	Tue Jun 20 2006 05:31 PM
Re: bahamas area	HanKFranK	Tue Jun 20 2006 07:03 PM
Re: bahamas area	Tony Cristaldi	Tue Jun 20 2006 07:38 PM
Re: bahamas area	Clark	Tue Jun 20 2006 09:58 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Lee-Delray	Tue Jun 20 2006 05:25 PM
Re: It's getting "the Look"	MapMaster	Tue Jun 20 2006 10:08 AM
Re: It's getting "the Look"	Beaumont, TX	Tue Jun 20 2006 10:40 AM
Re: It's getting "the Look"	danielw	Tue Jun 20 2006 11:37 AM
Today's GFS Runs..so far	danielw	Tue Jun 20 2006 12:03 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far	John2	Tue Jun 20 2006 01:39 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far	ElizabethH	Tue Jun 20 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far	Ron Basso	Tue Jun 20 2006 03:47 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far	saluki	Tue Jun 20 2006 02:06 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far	madmumbler	Tue Jun 20 2006 03:17 PM
Re: Today's GFS Runs..so far	MapMaster	Tue Jun 20 2006 03:54 PM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	Ron Basso	Tue Jun 20 2006 08:34 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	John2	Tue Jun 20 2006 08:41 AM
Re: Still Quiet but Tropics May be Stirring	ElizabethH	Tue Jun 20 2006 09:02 AM

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