I wouldn't put too much stock into the NAM solution, either. It got the WRF-NMM core plopped into it today at 12z, which has a known tendency to overdevelop tropical features. Not sure why, especially given that it is based off of the old Eta schemes and physics, but I would venture a guess to say that it is in the convective parameterizations.
If this were August, the upper-air pattern would likely be much different than it is now. We saw a lot of these types of developments last year, but not until the middle part of the season. The upper air pattern may remain marginally favorable as HF mentioned, but it's going to be tough to get any significant tropical development out of this one.
Then again, here in N. Florida, we'd take any enhancement to our rain chances we could get -- despite Alberto's 3"+ of rain, we're back over 10" in the hole for the year.
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