i've gotta adopt that shorthand for heights that tony is using... gets the information across fast. don't need to repeat his analysis of what is going on at various levels of the atmosphere out where our disturbance is camped.... it's pretty much on the button. you can see it in the visible and ir2 loops as well as a fair depiction of the same things in model initializations. thursday the upper air currents around the system should act a little less hostile as far as shearing the convection around, while continuing to support flashes of convection. on the whole the disturbance has kept active convection with good consistency, and is more or less in a synoptically favorable area to persist if not become more organized. there has been some westward movement with the mid-level vortices, drifting out of the convective masses... so maybe heights to the north are rising and trying to push the whole thing westward finally. this agrees with what the models have been predicting to a degree. now comes the part where we find out if some kind of low will actually organize and start pushing surface pressures down, before it reaches the southeast coast. there should be 2-3 days for it to organize. not sure what to make of the model depictions of other low pressure areas forming further east... as they'd be developing in a synoptically less favorable area (south/southwest of a big upper low). the upper low is shown with a surface reflection out near bermuda as well, but not with any development. the NAM still tries to get a disturbance up to the yucatan--probably overdone and no other support. the other globals have backed away from disturbed weather getting into the gulf (except perhaps the shell of our current bahamas interest after crossing florida). as far as development goes, we're not really any closer than we were last night in terms of progress. the system persists, though... it'll be worth watching all the way in even if it doesn't develop. this may end up being the twin of the near-tropical system that ran through the mid-atlantic late last june, showing signs of rapid organization just as it moved into north carolina. HF 0714z22june
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