the nhc verdict on the system has changed just a little bit. the latest twd posted illustrates part of this, while the possible investigation mentioned off the east coast of florida for saturday afternoon in the recon plan takes care of the rest. the tone is now gone from "probably nothing" to "possibly something". there is probably still just a surface trough (with two maxes on it), a couple of corresponding mid-level lows, and only a marginal environment aloft. changes in organization over the past few days have been very subtle, with the trend over time bieng slow organization. forecast models still showing only weak-if-any development. the current groupthink is that an inverted trough or possibly a weak low will drift into east florida over around the space coast. there are enough of the globals suggesting something else will try stirring (note the second oncoming wave with a signature visible around puerto rico at the present) east of that and following it in the same weak/pathetic state. the forecast models don't advertise anything really getting it's act together at all... given this a weak tropical system doesn't sound like the worst kind of news... all i ever hear coming out of florida is complaint about how dry it is. no matter what happens, probably some good rain on the way for a lot of people. may still be some places that alberto took good care of that aren't in the mood for more. expect by the middle of next week for the mid-atlantic to have spotty flooding problems. HF 1655z22june
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