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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2003 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
An Active Atlantic
      Sun Jul 06 2003 07:27 AM

(Note that this post also appears on the Main Page as a new article - I've kept it here to keep both threads a little more up to date with current events.)
ED

The Atlantic 'wave train' appears to be gearing up for a period of increased activity - at least 'active' for early July. Wind shear is not an inhibiting factor from 25W to about 65W. The Atlantic upper ridge is not significantly strong but it has elongated east-west thus providing a steady movement westward for any tropical waves emerging off the west coast of Africa. Any developing systems at the lower level are not likely to outrun their convection at the upper levels and SSTs are now warm enough to enhance any developing system.

The wave at 10N 50W at 06/09Z has maintained good structure overnight and is certainly an area of potential development in the next day or two. Also worth watching is the wave at 10N 28W at 06/06Z - this one may turn out to be the more significant of the two - and it should be near 15N 50W by mid-day on Thursday. The GFS seems to have initialized fairly well on the second easterly wave.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 06 2003 09:04 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* An Active Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Jul 06 2003 07:27 AM
. * * Area of Interest - Invest 95L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 06 2003 09:29 AM
. * * CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L) Rich B   Sun Jul 06 2003 12:40 PM
. * * CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L) Rich B   Sun Jul 06 2003 02:51 PM
. * * CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L) Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2003 05:34 AM
. * * CycloMax: Watch and Warning Summary (95L) Rich B   Mon Jul 07 2003 06:17 PM

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