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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat -
      Tue Aug 22 2006 08:11 PM

While still listed as a 65 knot Cat 1, by all appearances, Ileana is already at least pushing Cat 2, and could readily become a major hurricane by morning. This hurricane may pose a serious threat to the southern and southwestern Baja, with Dr. Lyons already anticipating 15-20 foot waves in those areas.

Model guidance suggests that she may either:

1) Head northwest, well-away from land

2) Head just a little east of northwest, then more north-northwest, and possibly bring squally rainbands and hurricane-force winds onshore - along with high waves out to sea and possibly surge inland

3) A few models have strongly suggested that a still strong and powerful Ileana pushes right up the west coast of the Baja for a bit and/or right up inside the Gulf of Baja - such a strong tropical cyclone following either one of these routes could also impact Southern California and/or Arizona/Nevada with some rains and maybe some winds

Visible Image from Aug. 22 at 2330Z


Official NHC "Cone of Uncertainty" (Pleas note time stamp)


Additionally, Storm Cooper has been very graciously including the most recent model runs below

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 23 2006 10:42 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat - cieldumort Tue Aug 22 2006 08:11 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - *DELETED* Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:37 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Clark   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 11:15 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Wed Aug 23 2006 05:25 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:51 PM

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