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Development chances in the Gulf of Mexico are going up and a named storm could be approaching the US next week. Very active period continues. Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Helene) , Major: 7 (Helene) Florida - Any: 7 (Helene) Major: 7 (Helene)
Hur Kirk
ADV#22 5:00 pm EDT
23.7N 49.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 943mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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TS Leslie
ADV#10 5:00 pm EDT
10.3N 33.6W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 993mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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Clark
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Posts: 1710
Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
      Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM

Our MM5 has been projecting an easterly course from the outset, not taking it as far west as the other models. As a result, it doesn't enter a region of cooler SSTs and more stable low-level air, allowing for the projected trough to send it more toward the east and thus Baja California. The GFDL tends to keep storms too strong over such conditions -- really in most cases -- and also likely keeps it stronger than the other models and thus more likely to be turned a bit more toward the northeast. While I think the other models are underdoing the intensity in the first three days, I think they have the right idea for down the line. Ileana is heading just a bit too far west now for a significant threat to be facing Baja California, in my view.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat - cieldumort Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - *DELETED* Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:37 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Clark   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 11:15 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Wed Aug 23 2006 05:25 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:51 PM

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