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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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Clark
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Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
      Wed Aug 23 2006 12:54 AM

Our MM5 has been projecting an easterly course from the outset, not taking it as far west as the other models. As a result, it doesn't enter a region of cooler SSTs and more stable low-level air, allowing for the projected trough to send it more toward the east and thus Baja California. The GFDL tends to keep storms too strong over such conditions -- really in most cases -- and also likely keeps it stronger than the other models and thus more likely to be turned a bit more toward the northeast. While I think the other models are underdoing the intensity in the first three days, I think they have the right idea for down the line. Ileana is heading just a bit too far west now for a significant threat to be facing Baja California, in my view.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat - cieldumort Wed Aug 23 2006 12:54 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - *DELETED* Storm Cooper   Wed Aug 23 2006 12:25 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2006 12:37 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Clark   Wed Aug 23 2006 12:54 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2006 03:15 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Wed Aug 23 2006 09:25 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Wed Aug 23 2006 12:46 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2006 12:51 AM

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