Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic is quiet
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Milton) , Major: 46 (Milton) Florida - Any: 46 (Milton) Major: 46 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat -
      Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM

Our MM5 has been projecting an easterly course from the outset, not taking it as far west as the other models. As a result, it doesn't enter a region of cooler SSTs and more stable low-level air, allowing for the projected trough to send it more toward the east and thus Baja California. The GFDL tends to keep storms too strong over such conditions -- really in most cases -- and also likely keeps it stronger than the other models and thus more likely to be turned a bit more toward the northeast. While I think the other models are underdoing the intensity in the first three days, I think they have the right idea for down the line. Ileana is heading just a bit too far west now for a significant threat to be facing Baja California, in my view.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* East Pac Ileana - Potential Coastal Baja threat - cieldumort Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - *DELETED* Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:37 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Clark   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 11:15 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Wed Aug 23 2006 05:25 AM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - Storm Cooper   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: *Rapidly* Intensifying East Pac Ileana - Baja, Ca. threat - cieldumort   Tue Aug 22 2006 08:51 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 7109

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center