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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean
      Fri Aug 25 2006 04:05 PM

7 AM Update 8/26

Ernesto has made it through the night, and probably some of the worst shear it will encounter, which leaves just a bit more shear today and tomorrow, but gradually upper level high pressure will build over it, giving it the potential to become a major hurricane as it nears Cuba and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall Ernesto became more organized overnight.



For Jamaica, currently it is forecast to be a stronger Tropical Storm as it approaches the island. A tropical storm watch remains up for the island, if Ernesto were to strengthen more than forecast in the short term, it may be possible to see a hurricane warning or watch as well.

Beyond Jamaica things begin to be interesting, the western tip of Cuba likely will be impacted from this system, by then most likely a hurricane. Beyond Cuba, it is currently forecast to be in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which I don't like to see as it puts a very large area of coastline under the gun at least for future track. Anywhere in the cone needs to be on the watch for this system. As far west as Texas, and east as Florida. The models have trended more east overnight too, but I'm waiting to see if this persists through the day to bank on that. Unforunately, conditions are setting up to allow the system to become a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

Midnight Update
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Haiti-Dominican Republic Border westward to the Southwestern tip of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica

Interests in the Cayman Islands and Cuba should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

4:40PM Update
Tropical Storm watches are up for southwest Haiti, and Tropical storm watches are also up for Jamaica.

Original Update
From Recon Reports and observations, it is apparant that Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed, and the next advisory should reflect this.

The center of circulation may be a bit ahead, but the storm still has reached enough strength to be considered a tropical storm.



More to come soon.


Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations


Debby

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 25 2006 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean RevUp   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean SirCane   Sat Aug 26 2006 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Local   Sat Aug 26 2006 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 26 2006 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Cat 5orBust   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Geoff   Sat Aug 26 2006 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean SHush   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Cat 5orBust   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean StPeteBill   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Tak   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean sara33   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Fujiwara?? wxman007   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Fujiwara?? TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean anastasia   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean WeatherNLU   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:03 PM
. * * future HanKFranK   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:38 PM
. * * Re: future Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:08 PM
. * * Re: future Random Chaos   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:13 PM
. * * Re: future grimreaper   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:44 PM
. * * Re: future Hugh   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:47 PM
. * * Re: future SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:18 PM
. * * Re: future TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:18 PM
. * * Re: future sara33   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:55 PM
. * * Re: future TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:31 PM
. * * Re: future wereallgonnadie   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:05 PM
. * * Re: future Random Chaos   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: future danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: future dhsfireman   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:47 PM
. * * TS Warnings issued Hugh   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:52 PM
. * * Re: TS Warnings issued dem05   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:03 PM
. * * Re: TS Warnings issued SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:55 PM
. * * Re: future dem05   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:36 PM
. * * Re: future TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:45 PM
. * * Re: future SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:17 PM
. * * Re: future bravzfan   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:25 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Ryan   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto pcola   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto pcola   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Ron Basso   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Genesis   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:48 PM
. * * Model Runs Colleen A.   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs Ron Basso   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs Colleen A.   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs hurricaneguy   Sat Aug 26 2006 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs hurricaneguy   Sat Aug 26 2006 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs JustMe   Sat Aug 26 2006 02:22 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs hurricaneguy   Sat Aug 26 2006 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs Ryan   Sat Aug 26 2006 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs hurricaneguy   Sat Aug 26 2006 03:54 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 26 2006 04:32 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs Tak   Sat Aug 26 2006 05:29 AM
. * * Satellite and Center danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2006 05:49 AM
. * * Pressure Rich B   Sat Aug 26 2006 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Pressure cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2006 06:13 AM
. * * Re: Pressure swimaway19   Sat Aug 26 2006 06:39 AM
. * * Re: Pressure craigm   Sat Aug 26 2006 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 26 2006 07:39 AM
. * * Re: Pressure ElizabethH   Sat Aug 26 2006 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Hugh   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:01 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Pressure dizzy9479   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Steve H1   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 26 2006 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Pressure ElizabethH   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Pressure madmumbler   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Pressure SebastianLou   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Pressure madmumbler   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Pressure TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Pressure EugeneF   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Hugh   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Pressure Colleen A.   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Pressure madmumbler   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Pressure Doughboy   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Pressure TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Pressure madmumbler   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Pressure pcola   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Pressure GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 26 2006 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Pressure madmumbler   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:26 AM
. * * East Coast Swirl zacros   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:45 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Swirl pcola   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Swirl Kevin   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Swirl Ron Basso   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Swirl TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 10:59 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Swirl Lysis   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Mike Gaynor   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Cash   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto SirCane   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto amazon   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:21 AM
. * * ivan/dennis wannabe? HanKFranK   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Hugh   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto WeatherNut   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Clark   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:07 PM
. * * Re: East Coast Swirl Kevin   Sat Aug 26 2006 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2006 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs dem05   Sat Aug 26 2006 02:39 AM
. * * Re: Model Runs Texas Cane Tracker   Sat Aug 26 2006 02:07 AM
. * * Conditions right now dem05   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now amonty   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now dem05   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:27 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now dem05   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now EugeneF   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now HurryCaneForm   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now Doombot!   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* HurryCaneForm   Sat Aug 26 2006 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:56 AM
. * * Satellites danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Satellites TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Satellites dem05   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Conditions right now nc_tropical_wx79   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto TampaRand   Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto scottsvb   Fri Aug 25 2006 11:43 PM
. * * Re: future West FL Jess   Fri Aug 25 2006 10:14 PM
. * * Re: future Lysis   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:00 PM
. * * Re: future pcola   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 PM
. * * Re: future MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:24 PM
. * * Re: future Random Chaos   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:27 PM
. * * Re: future weather_wise911   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:32 PM
. * * Ernesto Ryan   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Hugh   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Genesis   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto wereallgonnadie   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto dem05   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto ShanaTX   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Random Chaos   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Hugh   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto dem05   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Hugh   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto hawg92   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Clark   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Random Chaos   Fri Aug 25 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto hawg92   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto rmbjoe1954   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto nc_tropical_wx79   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Clark   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto wereallgonnadie   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto sara33   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Daniel294   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto CoalCracker   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Tak   Fri Aug 25 2006 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto SirCane   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto weather_wise911   Fri Aug 25 2006 07:38 PM
. * * Re: future GuppieGrouper   Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 PM
. * * Re: future anon tiger   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:53 PM
. * * Re: future TampaRand   Fri Aug 25 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Steve H1   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Cat 5orBust   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean hurricaneguy   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* johnnyg   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean pcola   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean johnnyg   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean Hawkeyewx   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean parrishNfl   Fri Aug 25 2006 04:44 PM

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