Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice

12:45 PM EDT Sunday Update
Several of our resident meteorologists have chimed in with their thoughts on Ernesto this early afternoon...

Rich B: at this post
HF: at this post
Clark: at this link or accessible below this main article here on the front page

More throughout the day as events warrant.

10:50 AM EDT Sunday Update
The forecast track remains much the same as earlier but further east, giving more risk to the Keys.

Again, it vital not to concentrate exactly on the point of landfall on the projection maps. Either way north or south is vulnerable to a hit. Use the cone rather than the points.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches may go up for the lower Florida keys later today.

Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Cgranma, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Camaguey provinces.

A warning also remains for southern Hati,

More to come....

Links

Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here

9:30 AM EDT Sunday Update

Hurricane Ernesto, a minimal hurricane has caused a large shift in intensity and track for the National Hurricane Center overnight, model trends kept on pusing east, and now forecast the storm to cross Cuba, and then enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The shortwave in the western US, may force the recurvature,putting us in Central Florida at most risk. It will be over cuba, but likely not long enough to significantly affect it

However, conditions seem to favor redevopment when it enters the Gulf. This means the entire west coast of Florida (still including the Panhandle, but mostly the peninsula) should be watching this system.

If it were to make landfall, it would be very late Wednesday through very early Friday, barring any suprises or slowdowns. Be aware that the hurricane center is forecasting a major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf. As the system is not over cuba yet, I would advise calm, right now, but if you haven't now would be a good time to get a few supplies if you have forgotton if you are along the west coast of Florida.

The angle of approach will likely be a very oblique one (somewhat like Hurricane Charley was two years ago), so it's very difficult to pinpoint an absolute landflal location now. Anywhere at and directly south of the center will feel the most issues of the storm.

504 AM EDT-Sunday
NHC has upgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto to a Category 1 Hurricane.
"Recent dropsonde and flight-level wind data from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds in Tropical Storm Ernesto have increased to 75 mph. This make Ernesto a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale."

Forecaster Stewart issued the 5 AM Discussion on Ernesto and is quoted with... " Now for the really bad news...the Official Forecast track has been shifted significantly to the right or East of the previous track...Especially at 96 and 120 hours..."

"All of the global and regional models now agree on recurvature over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico around 96 hours...and take Ernesto Northeastward across the Central or Northern Florida Peninsula by 120 hours. The Official Track is similar to but a little West of the consensus Models."

Remember to check for updated Advisories and Bulletins from your local NWS Office and/ or the National Hurricane Center~danielw

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.

Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto

Debby

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:46 PM)

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US