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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

JMII
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 546
Loc: Margate, Florida

Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM

Quote:

Ernesto will die in the mountains of Cuba.

I wouldn't go that far, but I do think it will be downgraded to a minimal Cat 1 or maybe even TS levels. Heck I find hard to believe it's a Cat 1 'Cane now. Sure the outflow is good but the center is still not wrapped up very tightly. Then again after seeing so many Cat 4/5 last year maybe I just forgot what a Cat 1 really looks like.

I've said it in another post but I believe we got a jumper here. It will have trouble over Cuba making the center hard to find, then re-appear in a disorganized state over the Straits of FL / east GOM, from there it will spin up to a Cat 2/3 then hook sharply - ala Charley. In fact I'd bet Ernesto becomes know as Charley Jr when all is said and done. In the end I see a larger wind and rain field (displaced from the center), but a weaker storm wind-wise overall (in other words no Cat 4).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22

Edited by JMII (Sun Aug 27 2006 01:59 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Ernesto track	allan	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	lagirl	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:59 AM
Hurricane Ernesto track	debwire	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Bob Dag	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:34 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	hofloka	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Judes	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	chase 22	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	tester	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:46 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	hofloka	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	alliedj	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Nateball	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:32 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	HumbleStormKat	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:21 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:40 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	twizted sizter	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ShreddedUmbrella	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	JMII	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	sdear	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ltpat228	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	cuidado	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:22 AM

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