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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#29 9:00 am EDT
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Kevin
Weather Master


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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast
      Tue Jun 11 2002 11:29 AM

I must agree with you in some condtions, HF. I do believe that we will not see storms that go harmlessly out to see this year. I'm betting (as far as East Coast systems go this year) that we will see many threats on the coast. And given the current pattern of cut-off systems hovering around the East Coast and developing convection in the Caribbean, I believe our first East Coast threat could be a Dennis (1999) type event. This would take place in August, most likely because sheer values will be more favorable by then. I really due think that we could see shades of the 1999 hurricane season this year, just with fewer intense storms and the Atlantic storms developing farther west (near E. Caribbean) than 1999. As for named storms, we could see as few as 8 and no more than 11 or 12.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jun 11 2002 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Kevin   Mon Jun 10 2002 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Anonymous   Mon Jun 10 2002 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Anonymous (HF)   Tue Jun 11 2002 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Kevin   Tue Jun 11 2002 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Anonymous   Mon Jun 10 2002 04:01 PM

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