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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum
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Kevin
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast
      Tue Jun 11 2002 03:29 PM

I must agree with you in some condtions, HF. I do believe that we will not see storms that go harmlessly out to see this year. I'm betting (as far as East Coast systems go this year) that we will see many threats on the coast. And given the current pattern of cut-off systems hovering around the East Coast and developing convection in the Caribbean, I believe our first East Coast threat could be a Dennis (1999) type event. This would take place in August, most likely because sheer values will be more favorable by then. I really due think that we could see shades of the 1999 hurricane season this year, just with fewer intense storms and the Atlantic storms developing farther west (near E. Caribbean) than 1999. As for named storms, we could see as few as 8 and no more than 11 or 12.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Jun 11 2002 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Kevin   Mon Jun 10 2002 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Anonymous   Mon Jun 10 2002 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Anonymous (HF)   Tue Jun 11 2002 05:37 AM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Kevin   Tue Jun 11 2002 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Updated 2002 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Anonymous   Mon Jun 10 2002 08:01 PM

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