Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Cyclogenesis - Maybe
Sun Sep 03 2006 09:33 AM
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Or maybe not. In fits and sputters the Atlantic basin keeps making an attempt to look like September in the basin - without much success. High wind shear from 10N to 20N and 50W to 30W has created a new 'Hurricane Graveyard' this season (or at least a 'Tropical Cyclone Graveyard'). This area of high wind shear shows no sign of relaxing for quite some time.
There are four areas to look at this Sunday morning:
A new Invest 90L has developed - almost a subset of 98L - near 13.5N 37.5W at 03/11Z. The system has strong convection, good outflow to the north, and a low level circulation center with an estimated pressure of 1008mb. Of all of the Invests in the Atlantic (3), this was the only one with model runs at 06Z. The tropical model suite moves the system to the west northwest and northwest and develops it into a hurricane in 48 hours. The GFDL dissipates the system immediately. Even if the track is to the west northwest, the system will soon encounter strong wind shear. It probably has a chance at TD status - but thats about it unless the movement remains more westerly.
Invest 98L near 12.5N 44W at 03/11Z still has cyclonic structure but appears to be on the decline. This system is likely to become a non-player as it merges with Invest 90L located about 400 miles to its east.
Invest 99L currently in the central Caribbean Sea near 14N 67.5W at 03/11Z and moving rapidly westward at 20+ knots. This system is encountering southwesterly wind shear and is currently weakening, however, the wind shear is on the decline. If it can hold together long enough, it has a chance for additional development in a couple of days as it continues westward and west northwestward. Although the chances are not high, it probably has the best chance among all of the current areas of interest of becoming something more than a TD.
Finally, a cluster of thunderstorms near 22.5N 74.5W at 03/11Z, currently on the decline, persists in the central Bahamas. The area has been stationary and exists in an area of modest shear - and the shear is expected to continue. Although showing some signs of cyclonic curvature, the area has no real structure and additional development is not really anticipated.
Another tropical wave has exited the African west coast, but the strong shear awaits it as well. A strong wave on the African continent is about five days away from emerging into the eastern Atlantic and this may become the 'real' system to watch - around the middle of next week.
Cheers,
ED
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