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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)

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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.
Sun Sep 03 2006 10:19 PM

It will be interesting to see how the evolution of TD 6 & the synoptic environment plays out over the next few days. There's pretty good agreement on enough ridging to send TD 6/likely eventual Florence westward in the general direction of the Bahamas, but what happens after that is still up in the air. I'm seeing a lot of tendencies for disturbances to continually butt up against the western side of the building ridge, but nothing to completely break it down as they all ride along its northern periphery.

While strong storms have a greater proclivity to find weaknesses in a ridge, they also generally have a greater proclivity to diabatically enhance them through warming aloft with their outflow. I have a feeling that the ultimate track of this one is going to depend heavily on how much of a disturbance can slide across the NE US toward the western edge of that ridge as the storm gets in that vicinity. That could be the difference between a landfall in the southeast, or a track up the coast and out to sea. We've had three storms already sorta ride the coast this year, and while I'm not one to put a lot of stock into the idea of "once a channel is set up for storms to follow, they all tend to do so throughout the season" -- it's not out of the realm of possibility that this one eventually does the same. Question is, where? Thankfully there is the whole week ahead to figure that out.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:19 PM
Re: so we are basically waiting - not a storm at 5	scottsvb	Tue Sep 05 2006 11:58 AM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	inHISgrip	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:20 PM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:25 PM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	craigm	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:42 PM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	Clark	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:19 PM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	typhoon_tip	Sun Sep 03 2006 10:50 PM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	Steve H1	Sun Sep 03 2006 11:58 PM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 04 2006 12:54 AM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	typhoon_tip	Mon Sep 04 2006 10:32 AM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	inHISgrip	Tue Sep 05 2006 08:58 AM
Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.	Clark	Sun Sep 03 2006 11:35 PM

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