Certainly it is premature to talk about the details of an east coast landfall, but it is a possibility. The fact that the DEEP trough moving through the central north Atlantic will eventually be replaced by ridging in its wake may be showing a change in the pattern....which concerns me. We haven't really seen any strong ridging resembling a Bermuda high, and this summer's pattern could foretell an Indian summer setup, with ridging taking shape and pumping up as TD #6 gets organized. Even a ridge-trough-ridge handover situation could evolve, which would put the SE US in a threat zone. I grew up on Long Island and have seen several hurricanes come through, and generally the cooler SSTs and accelerating movement once the storms approach 40N has done little in the way of damage, the exception being of course the '38 LI express, which fed off gulf stream waters and turned NW, creating the Shinnecock Inlet. I don't buy into the hype of a catastrophic hurricane in the tri-state area, the record books just don't show it. Yes, I guess anything can happen but those events are less than once in a lifetime. We never experienced an intensifying hurricane west of Port Jefferson, and the only "normal" cane I remember was Cat 1 Hurricane Belle. Gloria fell apart as she ripped up the coast and shredded apart as well. Not saying it can't happen, but conditions have to be beyond ideal for 'Catastrophic." That said, in a season that has fortunately not lived up to the expectations of forecasters, I'm still very concerned about this upcoming pulse of activity, especially the east coast of Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas. After the heartache of 2004 and 2005, this September surge has me a bit nervous. Many folks I talk to say we made it through this year, but it isn't over yet. It only takes one and one more I don't want to deal with. There is even the possibility that this could pass through the Straits and into the GOM. I just have a hunch that 2006 is going to leave a mark somewhere. Let's hope its up in the north Atlantic where it can fizzle out. Cheers!!
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Re: TD #6 in Central Atlantic; some prelimary thoughts.
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