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cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Lane - Now forecast to enter the Gulf of California -
      Sat Sep 16 2006 08:18 PM

Cat 3 was largely completely an estimate from afar. Because of distance, recon was a little delayed in getting into Lane - checked the cyclone out during a time that it was already interacting with land, over far less water, and likely well into the weakening trend. Had they been in earlier in the day, there would have been a decent chance of them finding even stronger winds than the estimated 125MPH. Dvorak technique strongly suggests that Lane may have really peaked out somewhere in the 132 to 145 MPH range.


IMHO, the SWSs being issued by various local NWSFOs ("The combination of these features will result in heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across south central Texas and The Hill Country. ") assumes that convective temps will be reached. If decaying TC Lane produces too much upper middle to upper level clouds over central Texas, rainfall rates and totals may end up being significantly less, as convection will effectively be inhibited (Similar to what happened with John)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Lane - Now forecast to enter the Gulf of California - cieldumort Sat Sep 16 2006 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lane - Now forecast to enter the Gulf of California - vpbob21   Sat Sep 16 2006 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lane - Now forecast to enter the Gulf of California - cieldumort   Sat Sep 16 2006 05:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lane - Now forecast to enter the Gulf of California - ShanaTX   Sat Sep 16 2006 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Lane - Now forecast to enter the Gulf of California - cieldumort   Sat Sep 16 2006 08:18 PM

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