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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum

Hurricane29
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida

Re: 2006/2007
Thu Jan 11 2007 08:49 AM

Well CPC in there update today thinks different and believes El Nino will be around atleast threw may...

Here is a part of there discussion...

Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007 (Fig. 5). Recent observed trends in the upper ocean tend to support those forecasts. Decreasing upper-ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific has been progressing east in association with the upwelling portion of the most recent Kelvin wave. In the absence of any further Kelvin wave activity, the upper-ocean heat content should return to near average in a few months. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook, given the resurgence of MJO activity in late December 2006. It is possible that the enhanced precipitation phase of the MJO, which is currently entering the western tropical Pacific, might trigger a more persistent pattern of cloudiness and precipitation over the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific during the next several weeks. If that occurs, then the equatorial easterlies over the central Pacific will likely weaken possibly leading to the initiation of a fifth Kelvin wave.

TODAY'S CPC UPDATE

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
2006/2007	HanKFranK	Thu Jan 11 2007 08:49 AM
Re: 2006/2007	allan	Wed Feb 21 2007 11:20 AM
Re: 2006/2007	madmumbler	Tue Feb 27 2007 07:08 PM
Re: 2006/2007	jojoindian6	Fri Mar 02 2007 06:59 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Ed Dunham	Tue Jan 09 2007 09:36 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Wed Jan 10 2007 02:06 PM
Re: 2006/2007	allan	Wed Jan 10 2007 06:02 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Thu Jan 11 2007 08:49 AM
Re: 2006/2007	ftlaudbob	Sat Jan 20 2007 08:51 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Ed Dunham	Sat Jan 20 2007 05:58 PM
Re: 2006/2007	B.C.Francis	Fri Jan 26 2007 04:40 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Tue Jan 30 2007 10:07 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Mon Feb 05 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	Hurricane29	Wed Jan 03 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	allan	Sat Jan 06 2007 01:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	sara33	Sun Jan 07 2007 12:25 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Ed Dunham	Tue Dec 26 2006 11:50 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Clark	Sun Dec 24 2006 10:24 PM
Re: 2006/2007	allan	Wed Dec 20 2006 10:15 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Myles	Wed Dec 20 2006 11:34 PM

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