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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum

Hurricane29
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida

Re: 2006/2007
Tue Jan 30 2007 10:07 PM

Summary: El Niño continues to weaken

There has been a sustained cooling of the equatorial Pacific since early December, with current SST anomalies now close to their El Niño thresholds. This is the clearest sign that the El Niño event is weakening and it bodes well for a switch towards average or wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. In fact, we've already seen a southward extension of tropical moisture which resulted in heavy rain over the NT, SA and the western parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria. This can be taken as a sign that rainfall patterns are beginning to change across Australia, the timing of which is consistent with that observed during previous events.

In addition to the surface cooling, there has been substantial cooling below the surface; a situation that is likely to promote further weakening of the surface El Niño pattern. However, the SOI, Trade Winds and central-western Pacific cloudiness have seen their decline towards neutral values arrested somewhat during January, in association with a westerly wind burst mid-month. The westerly burst has now dissipated, so it is expected that these other ENSO indicators will continue their general trend towards neutrality over the coming months, in keeping with the weakening of the El Niño event. Furthermore, computer modelling supports the view that the El Niño will continue to decline.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
2006/2007	HanKFranK	Tue Jan 30 2007 10:07 PM
Re: 2006/2007	allan	Wed Feb 21 2007 11:20 AM
Re: 2006/2007	madmumbler	Tue Feb 27 2007 07:08 PM
Re: 2006/2007	jojoindian6	Fri Mar 02 2007 06:59 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Ed Dunham	Tue Jan 09 2007 09:36 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Wed Jan 10 2007 02:06 PM
Re: 2006/2007	allan	Wed Jan 10 2007 06:02 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Thu Jan 11 2007 08:49 AM
Re: 2006/2007	ftlaudbob	Sat Jan 20 2007 08:51 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Ed Dunham	Sat Jan 20 2007 05:58 PM
Re: 2006/2007	B.C.Francis	Fri Jan 26 2007 04:40 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Tue Jan 30 2007 10:07 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Hurricane29	Mon Feb 05 2007 01:18 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	Hurricane29	Wed Jan 03 2007 10:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	allan	Sat Jan 06 2007 01:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	sara33	Sun Jan 07 2007 12:25 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Ed Dunham	Tue Dec 26 2006 11:50 AM
Re: 2006/2007	Clark	Sun Dec 24 2006 10:24 PM
Re: 2006/2007	allan	Wed Dec 20 2006 10:15 PM
Re: 2006/2007	Myles	Wed Dec 20 2006 11:34 PM

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