dem05
User
Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
|
Re: Who thinks Katrina was a Cat. 5 at landfall.
Wed Feb 21 2007 06:51 AM
|
|
|
I agree with Clark's analysis. While speaking of wind in sum, strengthening storms translate more of their strong winds to the surface, weaker systems translate far far less. While the storm surge from storms such as Katrina, Dennis and Ivan were large, all three were a case of a ball being set in motion well before landfall. Katrina was categorized as a category 3 at landfall wind wise, but the surge that came with it was reflective of the ocean buildup during peak intensity. Due to weaker wind readings, some have even suggested that Katrina was a category 2 at landfall. Either way, this does not discount or discredit high wind damage, tornado damage, and excessive storm surge effects. Likewise, Dennis was a category 4 at one point, but landfall as a cat 3 is almost a stretch. Outside of some gusts and winds in Santa Rosa County, there is little evidence to support a weakening category 3 hurricane produced a lot of category 3 wind. Dennis himself may have been a category 2 in a smallarea when you look at the observations. On a side note, Ivan was a similar beast. It was a Cat 4 hours before landfall, but as a weakening hurricane...It probably brought some category 3 wind while the cat 4 tide continued to reach and devestate the coast. Conversely, A well known hurricane hit this neckof the woods before I lived here...While Charley hit at its wind maximum...it strengthened late, moved extremely fast, and lacked the wind diameter to create a true category 4 storm surge. In an area that is highly vulnerable to this threat, the surge was actually confined tothe coastal areas.
A track record has been built over the last several years. The Saffir-Simpson Wind scale is very important...however...it may be time for something like the Enhanced Fujita when it comes to hurricanes. Something that is not confusing to the public (I.E. Hurricane "X-whatever" :Cat 3 Winds/ Cat 5 Tide and Surge/Rain-Flood Risk: High). That may help the public. Furthermore, science may refine wind speeds in strengthening and weakening storms. From my personal experience, I have been in enough of them to say that a strengthening Category 1 at landfall almost seems stronger than a weakening category 3 at landfall. While that is a personal sensation, it is proven that weakening storms do translate less of the stronger winds to the surface.
From the aspects of death toll and dollar damage, both of these are highly unfortunate truths with hurricanes and tropical storms. However, it is really impossible to correlate a storm category with these figures. A massive flood event tropical storm in Houston can create similar damages to a category 3 hurricane in another place. Likewise, a category 1 hurricane can kill thousands in Mexico or Central America, while a similar storm may only injure a handfull in the US. These are aspects of topography/geography, population and demographics. Maybe the social sciences world will have a way to categorize hurricanesin that respect someday , but for now...the best we can go on is an actual strength and an areas vulnerability to its impacts.
As devastating and horrific as Katrina, Dennis, and Ivan were...I can't imagine the devastation we would have seen had these storms hit full steam. The same can be said for Hurricane Charley. As horrific as these events were, each one of them did have some silver lining. God forbid the day that we ever see one of these storms hit at their full force with the promise of a full tidal surge.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
