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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Hurricane45
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The 2006/07 El Niño has ended !
      Wed Feb 21 2007 02:35 PM

The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph).

What does this mean for Australia? Firstly, while the end of the El Niño would normally be associated with a return to more normal rainfall patterns, it should not be seen as a precursor to drought-breaking rains. This particularly applies to water supplies in parts of eastern and southern Australia, which in some instances require several years of healthy rainfalls to recover to a satisfactory level. Nonetheless, we can be cautiously optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought-affected areas over the next one to two seasons.

A La Niña in 2007?
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph). and (c) a large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn.

ENSO UPDATE

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Season Begins In Five Weeks MikeCAdministrator Wed Feb 21 2007 02:35 PM
. * * Re: SSTs- 2007 vs 2005 cieldumort   Thu Apr 26 2007 07:36 PM
. * * Re: response dem05   Tue Apr 24 2007 05:50 AM
. * * response HanKFranK   Tue Apr 24 2007 02:36 AM
. * * Re: SSTs- 2007 vs 2005 Bloodstar   Mon Apr 23 2007 06:56 PM
. * * SSTs- 2007 vs 2005 danielwAdministrator   Sat Apr 21 2007 07:07 AM
. * * Re: SSTs-42058 Storm Hunter   Fri Apr 20 2007 07:11 PM
. * * Re: SSTs-42058 danielwAdministrator   Thu Apr 12 2007 09:21 AM
. * * Re: SSTs-42058 Storm Hunter   Mon Apr 09 2007 07:08 PM
. * * Re: SSTs-42058 WeatherNLU   Tue Apr 03 2007 03:22 PM
. * * SSTs-42058 danielwAdministrator   Tue Apr 03 2007 02:27 AM
. * * Re: Current Buoy SSTs AKABEACH   Mon Apr 02 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Current Buoy SSTs Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Apr 02 2007 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 Beach   Mon Apr 02 2007 04:54 PM
. * * Re: NOAA indicates Neutral conditions for now but La Nina is likely to take over in the next 3 month madmumbler   Tue Mar 27 2007 09:39 PM
. * * NOAA indicates Neutral conditions for now but La Nina is likely to take over in the next 3 months Hurricane29   Tue Mar 27 2007 05:32 PM
. * * Admin Notes Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 27 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Hope to back this year! WeatherNLU   Tue Mar 27 2007 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Hope to back this year! WeatherNLU   Tue Mar 27 2007 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Hope to back this year! cieldumort   Tue Mar 27 2007 05:22 AM
. * * Re: too early, bud cieldumort   Tue Mar 27 2007 05:01 AM
. * * Re: Hope to back this year! Clark   Mon Mar 26 2007 04:42 PM
. * * Hope to back this year! WeatherNLU   Mon Mar 26 2007 07:58 AM
. * * Re: too early, bud allan   Thu Mar 22 2007 12:21 PM
. * * Re: too early, bud Storm Hunter   Thu Mar 22 2007 03:36 AM
. * * Re: too early, bud Bloodstar   Wed Mar 21 2007 09:44 PM
. * * Re: too early, bud Hurricane29   Wed Mar 21 2007 04:32 AM
. * * too early, bud HanKFranK   Wed Mar 21 2007 04:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 Hurricane29   Fri Mar 16 2007 01:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 HURRICANELONNY   Mon Mar 12 2007 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 charlottefl   Sat Mar 03 2007 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 Lee-Delray   Sat Mar 03 2007 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 cieldumort   Wed Feb 28 2007 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007 Storm Cooper   Fri Feb 23 2007 01:32 AM
. * * Re: early considerations allan   Thu Feb 22 2007 09:03 PM
. * * Re: early considerations saluki   Thu Feb 22 2007 06:10 PM
. * * Re: early considerations Hurricane29   Thu Feb 22 2007 04:05 AM
. * * Re: early considerations nl   Wed Feb 21 2007 11:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2006/07 El Niño has ended ! Hurricane29   Wed Feb 21 2007 02:38 PM
. * * The 2006/07 El Niño has ended ! Hurricane45   Wed Feb 21 2007 02:35 PM
. * * early considerations HanKFranK   Mon Feb 19 2007 03:33 AM

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