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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Idalia) , Major: 271 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 271 (Idalia) Major: 271 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Hurricane29
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida

Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007
Fri Mar 16 2007 01:33 AM

Good evening,

IRI'S update concludes that this la Nina will be a weak one at best with a 60% of Neutral conditions developing by mid-2007.

Here's a part of there's discussion.

While many of the features in the tropical Pacific air-sea system are consistent with initiation of La Niña conditions -- shallow thermocline in the east, emergence of cold SST anomalies, and easterly wind anomalies -- considerable uncertainty remains over whether such conditions will lead to the growth of a La Niña event. For one thing, the ITCZ is closest to the equator at this time of the year, leading to weaker winds, and thus a weaker connection between subsurface and surface conditions. Still, the trend is currently toward cooling, and the cold/shallow subsurface anomalies necessary for further development of La Niña conditions exist. Thus there is a finite possibility that the system may reach La Niña conditions within the next several months. Probabilities initially favor ENSO-neutral conditions, but by mid-2007 the forecast suggests that weak La Niña conditions are more likely.

A re-emergence of El Niño conditions is very unlikely likely, with probabilities not exceeding 10% throughout the forecast period. <strong>There is an approximately 60% likelihood for ENSO-neutral conditions to start, with a 35% probability for La Niña conditions. By mid-2007, the probabilities for La Niña grow to 50%</strong>

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Season Begins In Five Weeks	MikeC	Fri Mar 16 2007 01:33 AM
Re: SSTs- 2007 vs 2005	cieldumort	Thu Apr 26 2007 07:36 PM
Re: response	dem05	Tue Apr 24 2007 05:50 AM
response	HanKFranK	Tue Apr 24 2007 02:36 AM
Re: SSTs- 2007 vs 2005	Bloodstar	Mon Apr 23 2007 06:56 PM
SSTs- 2007 vs 2005	danielw	Sat Apr 21 2007 07:07 AM
Re: SSTs-42058	Storm Hunter	Fri Apr 20 2007 07:11 PM
Re: SSTs-42058	danielw	Thu Apr 12 2007 09:21 AM
Re: SSTs-42058	Storm Hunter	Mon Apr 09 2007 07:08 PM
Re: SSTs-42058	WeatherNLU	Tue Apr 03 2007 03:22 PM
SSTs-42058	danielw	Tue Apr 03 2007 02:27 AM
Re: Current Buoy SSTs	AKABEACH	Mon Apr 02 2007 10:58 PM
Re: Current Buoy SSTs	Ed Dunham	Mon Apr 02 2007 10:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	Beach	Mon Apr 02 2007 04:54 PM
Re: NOAA indicates Neutral conditions for now but La Nina is likely to take over in the next 3 month	madmumbler	Tue Mar 27 2007 09:39 PM
NOAA indicates Neutral conditions for now but La Nina is likely to take over in the next 3 months	Hurricane29	Tue Mar 27 2007 05:32 PM
Admin Notes	Ed Dunham	Tue Mar 27 2007 02:29 PM
Re: Hope to back this year!	WeatherNLU	Tue Mar 27 2007 01:53 PM
Re: Hope to back this year!	WeatherNLU	Tue Mar 27 2007 01:51 PM
Re: Hope to back this year!	cieldumort	Tue Mar 27 2007 05:22 AM
Re: too early, bud	cieldumort	Tue Mar 27 2007 05:01 AM
Re: Hope to back this year!	Clark	Mon Mar 26 2007 04:42 PM
Hope to back this year!	WeatherNLU	Mon Mar 26 2007 07:58 AM
Re: too early, bud	allan	Thu Mar 22 2007 12:21 PM
Re: too early, bud	Storm Hunter	Thu Mar 22 2007 03:36 AM
Re: too early, bud	Bloodstar	Wed Mar 21 2007 09:44 PM
Re: too early, bud	Hurricane29	Wed Mar 21 2007 04:32 AM
too early, bud	HanKFranK	Wed Mar 21 2007 04:00 AM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	Hurricane29	Fri Mar 16 2007 01:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	HURRICANELONNY	Mon Mar 12 2007 09:35 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	charlottefl	Sat Mar 03 2007 09:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	Lee-Delray	Sat Mar 03 2007 02:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	cieldumort	Wed Feb 28 2007 09:27 AM
Re: Hurricane Season Begins June 1st, 2007	Storm Cooper	Fri Feb 23 2007 01:32 AM
Re: early considerations	allan	Thu Feb 22 2007 09:03 PM
Re: early considerations	saluki	Thu Feb 22 2007 06:10 PM
Re: early considerations	Hurricane29	Thu Feb 22 2007 04:05 AM
Re: early considerations	nl	Wed Feb 21 2007 11:47 PM
Re: The 2006/07 El Niño has ended !	Hurricane29	Wed Feb 21 2007 02:38 PM
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended !	Hurricane45	Wed Feb 21 2007 02:35 PM
early considerations	HanKFranK	Mon Feb 19 2007 03:33 AM

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