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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 273 (Idalia) , Major: 273 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 273 (Idalia) Major: 273 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum
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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: The 2007 Outlook
      Tue Mar 27 2007 04:33 PM

I see no reason to dispute TSR which I have found to be fairly reliable but I will average Colo. State and TSR and go with 16/8/4.
Last week's pattern looked very much like a summer one...early start to the season; maybe about a month early (busier July and August than normal) with as many as 8 before Labor day. If La Nina strengthens over the fall then that will support the numbers I have provided.
Who knows where they will go. The recent study published last week concerning analysis of overwash from major storms over an estimated several thousand year period said probability of a direct strike by a major (IV-V) is .3%...

--------------------
doug

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Mar 27 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Psyber   Wed May 16 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook CDMOrlando   Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Clark   Wed May 09 2007 04:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Valandil   Thu Apr 26 2007 07:35 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Hurricane29   Thu Apr 26 2007 02:54 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook DMFischer   Wed Apr 25 2007 08:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HURRICANELONNY   Wed Apr 25 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 26 2007 04:33 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook stormchazer   Sun Apr 22 2007 01:12 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MadDog   Mon May 07 2007 12:54 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook John C   Thu Apr 19 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Bloodstar   Wed Apr 18 2007 06:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Robert A   Tue Apr 03 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook dem05   Tue Apr 03 2007 07:30 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 30 2007 02:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Apr 03 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MikeCAdministrator   Fri Apr 27 2007 04:04 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HCW   Sun Apr 29 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook NewWatcher   Mon Apr 30 2007 01:15 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Apr 30 2007 05:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook native   Mon Apr 30 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook LoisCane   Mon Apr 30 2007 08:13 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 01 2007 08:46 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 03 2007 01:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 10 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 17 2007 03:48 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lysis   Fri May 18 2007 07:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lysis   Tue May 22 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook cieldumort   Thu May 17 2007 03:43 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook weather_wise911   Thu May 10 2007 01:18 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook sara33   Fri May 04 2007 11:19 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HanKFranK   Sun May 06 2007 04:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Bee-Beep   Wed Apr 04 2007 06:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook doug   Tue Mar 27 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook madmumbler   Sun Mar 25 2007 01:24 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Tak   Sat Mar 24 2007 12:04 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MetOc   Tue Mar 20 2007 05:53 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Hurricane29   Tue Mar 20 2007 06:56 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook VMI Bran   Mon Mar 12 2007 12:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook saluki   Tue Mar 13 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook ftlaudbob   Thu Mar 15 2007 10:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Storm Cooper   Sun Mar 11 2007 08:20 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook allan   Sun Mar 11 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Myles   Mon Mar 12 2007 03:46 AM

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