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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: The 2007 Outlook
      Fri Mar 30 2007 10:09 AM

The latest SST forecast was issued this morning by CPC:

CPC 6-Month SST Forecast

The CPC outlook continues to show a robust La Nina in the eastern tropical Pacific during the Summer but it also indicates a continued cooling trend of the tropical Atlantic during August and September. The accuracy of the forecast is not as significant to me as is the continued trend toward a cooler tropical Atlantic by mid-Summer.

Looking at previous years where a weak El Nino switched to a La Nina ENSO event during the early Spring can also be helpful in developing an outlook for this season. Four representative years are noted, along with the storm totals for those seasons:

1954: 11/8/2
1964: 12/6/6
1970: 10/5/2
1988: 12/5/3

The best analog years from an ENSO viewpoint are 1964 and 1988. Both of these years had an average anomaly of +0.8C during the D/J/F timeframe - as does 2007.

If this cooling trend materializes during the Summer, the chances for late-season activity will decline. My new seasonal distribution is as follows:

M/J = 0; J = 2; A = 4; S = 4; O = 2; N = 1; D = 0

Although I've left the door open for a subtropical system in November, my revised seasonal forecast is 13/7/3 .
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Mar 30 2007 10:09 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Psyber   Wed May 16 2007 10:04 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook CDMOrlando   Sat May 12 2007 05:00 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Clark   Wed May 09 2007 12:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Valandil   Thu Apr 26 2007 03:35 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Hurricane29   Thu Apr 26 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook DMFischer   Wed Apr 25 2007 04:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HURRICANELONNY   Wed Apr 25 2007 05:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 26 2007 12:33 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook stormchazer   Sun Apr 22 2007 09:12 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MadDog   Mon May 07 2007 08:54 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook John C   Wed Apr 18 2007 09:17 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Bloodstar   Wed Apr 18 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Robert A   Mon Apr 02 2007 10:25 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook dem05   Tue Apr 03 2007 03:30 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 30 2007 10:09 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Apr 03 2007 11:18 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MikeCAdministrator   Fri Apr 27 2007 12:04 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HCW   Sun Apr 29 2007 11:48 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook NewWatcher   Mon Apr 30 2007 09:15 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Apr 30 2007 01:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook native   Mon Apr 30 2007 03:42 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook LoisCane   Mon Apr 30 2007 04:13 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 01 2007 04:46 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 03 2007 09:47 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 09 2007 08:55 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 16 2007 11:48 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lysis   Fri May 18 2007 03:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lysis   Tue May 22 2007 06:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook cieldumort   Wed May 16 2007 11:43 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook weather_wise911   Wed May 09 2007 09:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook sara33   Fri May 04 2007 07:19 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HanKFranK   Sun May 06 2007 12:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Bee-Beep   Wed Apr 04 2007 02:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook doug   Tue Mar 27 2007 12:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook madmumbler   Sun Mar 25 2007 09:24 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Tak   Sat Mar 24 2007 08:04 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MetOc   Tue Mar 20 2007 01:53 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Hurricane29   Tue Mar 20 2007 02:56 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook VMI Bran   Mon Mar 12 2007 08:08 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook saluki   Mon Mar 12 2007 10:25 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook ftlaudbob   Thu Mar 15 2007 06:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Storm Cooper   Sun Mar 11 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook allan   Sun Mar 11 2007 06:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Myles   Sun Mar 11 2007 11:46 PM

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