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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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dem05
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: The 2007 Season
      Sat May 05 2007 01:29 AM

On the six month hurricane and water temperature forecasts. I am not as concerned about the strength of the LaNina as I am concerned with the fact that there is NOT an ElNino (I refernce 2004 and 2005 just two examples). With respect to the water temperatures, I am MORE concerned that the Atlantic will be cooling and will not be as warm asthe Carribean later in the season. That means that more waves will have a chance to sneak past the Atlanticportionof the MDR instead of developing early and heading out to sea. In the mean time, if you revisit the forecast map, the temps in the Carribean and extreme southern GOMEX will be staying above average throughout the season. Of course, if this happens the math looks like this: More waves entering the Carribean, more waves/systems taking advantage of warmer temps closer to home, and even if the total season numbers are lower than forecast, we're gonna see more landfalls with this scenario.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2007 Season MikeCAdministrator Sat May 05 2007 01:29 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch scottsvb   Mon May 07 2007 05:35 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch lightsgo   Mon May 07 2007 05:26 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 07 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch nc_wx_watcher   Mon May 07 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Hurricane29   Mon May 07 2007 02:43 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 07 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Storm Hunter   Mon May 07 2007 02:05 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch danielwAdministrator   Mon May 07 2007 01:46 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 06 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch h2ocean   Sun May 06 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch cieldumort   Sun May 06 2007 04:11 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch scottsvb   Sun May 06 2007 05:16 AM
. * * hybrid watch HanKFranK   Sat May 05 2007 11:03 PM
. * * Re: coastal cutoff low Hurricane29   Sat May 05 2007 05:20 PM
. * * Re: coastal cutoff low cieldumort   Sat May 05 2007 01:48 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season dem05   Sat May 05 2007 01:29 AM
. * * coastal cutoff low HanKFranK   Fri May 04 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Margie   Fri May 04 2007 04:34 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 04 2007 03:30 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Margie   Thu May 03 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia Bloodstar   Thu May 03 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia ChessieStorm   Thu May 03 2007 01:43 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia Bloodstar   Wed May 02 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia NewWatcher   Wed May 02 2007 01:11 PM
. * * gfs paranoia HanKFranK   Wed May 02 2007 12:04 AM

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