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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
hybrid watch
      Sat May 05 2007 11:03 PM

some of the models have gotten a little more punchy with this system. several are keeping its vertical support (i.e. the core of the upper cutoff low) overhead longer, and pushing the thing further southwest over warmer waters. they tend to push it closer to the coast around midweek, and then let it wash out, upper westerlies ripping it up. whatever it does in the meantime will be a mite interesting. there's definitely some buzz about this thing, and most of the global models show it as a modest gale center. the end result one way or another will probably be that of a persistent late noreaster/perhaps tropical storm in southeast coastal waters, and maybe something for the folks in the coastal plain from north florida to north carolina if it decides to come much closer. has to act quick--this is an anomalous sort of synoptic feature that will not allow days and days for organization. it may look more possible than earlier, but anything in may is still quite a stretch. note there has not been a landfalling tropical cyclone in the u.s. in may since the 1970s, and those were subtropical.
on the side, it's a sad sight in greensburg, kansas. that may have been the first F-5 tornado in the u.s. in some years.
HF 2357z05may

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2007 Season MikeCAdministrator Sat May 05 2007 11:03 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch scottsvb   Mon May 07 2007 05:35 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch lightsgo   Mon May 07 2007 05:26 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 07 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch nc_wx_watcher   Mon May 07 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Hurricane29   Mon May 07 2007 02:43 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 07 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Storm Hunter   Mon May 07 2007 02:05 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch danielwAdministrator   Mon May 07 2007 01:46 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 06 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch h2ocean   Sun May 06 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch cieldumort   Sun May 06 2007 04:11 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch scottsvb   Sun May 06 2007 05:16 AM
. * * hybrid watch HanKFranK   Sat May 05 2007 11:03 PM
. * * Re: coastal cutoff low Hurricane29   Sat May 05 2007 05:20 PM
. * * Re: coastal cutoff low cieldumort   Sat May 05 2007 01:48 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season dem05   Sat May 05 2007 01:29 AM
. * * coastal cutoff low HanKFranK   Fri May 04 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Margie   Fri May 04 2007 04:34 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 04 2007 03:30 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Margie   Thu May 03 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia Bloodstar   Thu May 03 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia ChessieStorm   Thu May 03 2007 01:43 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia Bloodstar   Wed May 02 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia NewWatcher   Wed May 02 2007 01:11 PM
. * * gfs paranoia HanKFranK   Wed May 02 2007 12:04 AM

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