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The broad Gulf area is now up to 70/70% for development while the Atlantic area is 10/30% for development. Neither are marked as an invest area yet, but the Gulf may be tagged later today. Texas should watch the Gulf area for a large rain event. Atlantic is FL through the Carolinas depending on how soon (if at all) the system develops, sooner implies further north.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: hybrid watch
      Mon May 07 2007 05:35 AM

Still my forecast is on track below from early Sunday... so I reposted this!



Not for the first couple of days...On the models,.I will agree with the ECMWF,Nogaps,Ukmet and even some of the GFS.... At first the storm will be strong..but nontropical...a gale center....but as it slowly picks up some tropical characteristics...it will weaken...cause it wont be a non tropical system as its in transition....then as it comes close to Floridas NE coast and St Augustine...the LLC will seperate from the mid and upper low and be on its west side and get pushed sw between the mid and upper low now to its E and the weak ridge over the NE gulf of mexico. It will slide into florida and probably fizzle out. This is the atmospheric synopsis pattern setting up. This will bring mostly rain and breezy conditions...but still movement and strength of the LLC later in the period is still up in the air at this time.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2007 Season MikeCAdministrator Mon May 07 2007 05:35 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch scottsvb   Mon May 07 2007 05:35 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch lightsgo   Mon May 07 2007 05:26 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 07 2007 03:00 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch nc_wx_watcher   Mon May 07 2007 02:45 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Hurricane29   Mon May 07 2007 02:43 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Lamar-Plant City   Mon May 07 2007 02:18 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch Storm Hunter   Mon May 07 2007 02:05 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch danielwAdministrator   Mon May 07 2007 01:46 AM
. * * Re: hybrid watch MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 06 2007 11:20 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch h2ocean   Sun May 06 2007 09:50 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch cieldumort   Sun May 06 2007 04:11 PM
. * * Re: hybrid watch scottsvb   Sun May 06 2007 05:16 AM
. * * hybrid watch HanKFranK   Sat May 05 2007 11:03 PM
. * * Re: coastal cutoff low Hurricane29   Sat May 05 2007 05:20 PM
. * * Re: coastal cutoff low cieldumort   Sat May 05 2007 01:48 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season dem05   Sat May 05 2007 01:29 AM
. * * coastal cutoff low HanKFranK   Fri May 04 2007 10:10 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Margie   Fri May 04 2007 04:34 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 04 2007 03:30 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Season Margie   Thu May 03 2007 06:53 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia Bloodstar   Thu May 03 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia ChessieStorm   Thu May 03 2007 01:43 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia Bloodstar   Wed May 02 2007 06:17 PM
. * * Re: gfs paranoia NewWatcher   Wed May 02 2007 01:11 PM
. * * gfs paranoia HanKFranK   Wed May 02 2007 12:04 AM

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