cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Is the Offshore Storm Subtropical?
Wed May 09 2007 01:11 AM
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I think Clark makes the "company" argument not to name 90L extremely well, and those of us wondering if NHC may get around to bumping 90L would be remiss not to consider his words.
On the other hand
The front to 90Ls east is really no longer married to 90L, at all, but rather just a part of the very large cyclonic circulation. (90L being, IMHO, a subtropical storm embedded and birthed from within a much larger extra-tropical feature. And the older warm seclusion which took place is now probably just a bit of a trof, at best.
Also, many people mistakenly assume or demand that to be "subtropical" there must be a warm core. This is simply not so. Nor must there be strongest winds close to the "eye". In fact, quite the opposite of each is most often the case, and simply more correct. Certainly 90L, as a subtropical cyclone, stands far slimmer odds of ever transitioning over to warm-core, tropical, than, say, an Epsilon. That is undeniable. But the core has probably been just either side of neutral throughout the day, and that is classic subtropical. Also, the _very_ symmetrical wind field (I would recommend to anyone to glance this time-sensitive Scatterometer, while it is still valid, to see this first-hand, has tended to have an equally symmetrical core radius of maximum sustained winds roughly 100+ miles from the center. Again, truly subtropical.
I have probably mentioned this here before, and I'm sure I'll mention it somewhere again, that it is at least this individuals observation that NHC is usually extremely reluctant to name legitimate subtropical storms as such unless they have a better than 50-50 chance of transitioning to fully tropical, and right now, and all day long, that has not been the case with our 90L.
On the other hand, following the golden rule above, if there should be a decent flareup closer to the center overnight and/or before or during recon tomorrow, and especially if recon does find even a decent smidgen of warm core, then the official naming of (Andrea) before landfall still seems to me to be entirely possible.
It will be interesting to see how long it can last in at least it's current state, now that the clock is ticking, and it is currently on a course with dry land, and perhaps more dry air entrainment, as well. While I am not writing 90L off for a recon flight entirely, if it doesn't flare up overnight, I suspect NHC might leave this one for post-season. We've all seen this before.
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