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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: The 2007 Outlook
      Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM

2007 Prediction

This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:

1. The weak to moderate El Niño event that rapidly developed during August to October 2006 has now dissipated. Most of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral or cool ENSO conditions are likely for this upcoming summer/fall. The observed cooling during this time period in 2006-2007 is the strongest cooling on record.

2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2006 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, the conditions appear to reflect more conditions of the two very active seasons of 2004-2005.

Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.

No. of Hurricanes 10
No. of Named Storms 19
No. of Hurricane Days 37
No. of Named Storm Days 89
Intense Hurricanes 5
Intense Hurricane Days 13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 194

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Psyber   Wed May 16 2007 02:04 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook CDMOrlando   Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Clark   Wed May 09 2007 04:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Valandil   Thu Apr 26 2007 07:35 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Hurricane29   Thu Apr 26 2007 02:54 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook DMFischer   Wed Apr 25 2007 08:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HURRICANELONNY   Wed Apr 25 2007 09:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 26 2007 04:33 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook stormchazer   Sun Apr 22 2007 01:12 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MadDog   Mon May 07 2007 12:54 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook John C   Thu Apr 19 2007 01:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Bloodstar   Wed Apr 18 2007 06:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Robert A   Tue Apr 03 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook dem05   Tue Apr 03 2007 07:30 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 30 2007 02:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Apr 03 2007 03:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MikeCAdministrator   Fri Apr 27 2007 04:04 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HCW   Sun Apr 29 2007 03:48 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook NewWatcher   Mon Apr 30 2007 01:15 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Mon Apr 30 2007 05:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook native   Mon Apr 30 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook LoisCane   Mon Apr 30 2007 08:13 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 01 2007 08:46 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 03 2007 01:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 10 2007 12:55 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 17 2007 03:48 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lysis   Fri May 18 2007 07:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Lysis   Tue May 22 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook cieldumort   Thu May 17 2007 03:43 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook weather_wise911   Thu May 10 2007 01:18 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook sara33   Fri May 04 2007 11:19 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook HanKFranK   Sun May 06 2007 04:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Bee-Beep   Wed Apr 04 2007 06:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook doug   Tue Mar 27 2007 04:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook madmumbler   Sun Mar 25 2007 01:24 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Tak   Sat Mar 24 2007 12:04 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook MetOc   Tue Mar 20 2007 05:53 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Hurricane29   Tue Mar 20 2007 06:56 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook VMI Bran   Mon Mar 12 2007 12:08 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook saluki   Tue Mar 13 2007 02:25 AM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook ftlaudbob   Thu Mar 15 2007 10:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Storm Cooper   Sun Mar 11 2007 08:20 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook allan   Sun Mar 11 2007 10:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2007 Outlook Myles   Mon Mar 12 2007 03:46 AM

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