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News Talkback >> 2007 Storm Forum

CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist

Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida

Re: The 2007 Outlook
Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM

2007 Prediction

This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:

1. The weak to moderate El NiÃ±o event that rapidly developed during August to October 2006 has now dissipated. Most of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral or cool ENSO conditions are likely for this upcoming summer/fall. The observed cooling during this time period in 2006-2007 is the strongest cooling on record.

2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2006 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, the conditions appear to reflect more conditions of the two very active seasons of 2004-2005.

Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.

No. of Hurricanes 10
No. of Named Storms 19
No. of Hurricane Days 37
No. of Named Storm Days 89
Intense Hurricanes 5
Intense Hurricane Days 13
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 194

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Psyber	Wed May 16 2007 02:04 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	CDMOrlando	Sat May 12 2007 09:00 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Clark	Wed May 09 2007 04:17 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Valandil	Thu Apr 26 2007 07:35 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Hurricane29	Thu Apr 26 2007 02:54 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	DMFischer	Wed Apr 25 2007 08:09 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	HURRICANELONNY	Wed Apr 25 2007 09:09 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Thu Apr 26 2007 04:33 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	stormchazer	Sun Apr 22 2007 01:12 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	MadDog	Mon May 07 2007 12:54 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	John C	Thu Apr 19 2007 01:17 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Bloodstar	Wed Apr 18 2007 06:29 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Robert A	Tue Apr 03 2007 02:25 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	dem05	Tue Apr 03 2007 07:30 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Fri Mar 30 2007 02:09 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Tue Apr 03 2007 03:18 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	MikeC	Fri Apr 27 2007 04:04 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	HCW	Sun Apr 29 2007 03:48 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	NewWatcher	Mon Apr 30 2007 01:15 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	SkeetoBite	Mon Apr 30 2007 05:08 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	native	Mon Apr 30 2007 07:42 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	LoisCane	Mon Apr 30 2007 08:13 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Lamar-Plant City	Tue May 01 2007 08:46 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Thu May 03 2007 01:47 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Thu May 10 2007 12:55 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Ed Dunham	Thu May 17 2007 03:48 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Lysis	Fri May 18 2007 07:58 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Lysis	Tue May 22 2007 10:08 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	cieldumort	Thu May 17 2007 03:43 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	weather_wise911	Thu May 10 2007 01:18 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	sara33	Fri May 04 2007 11:19 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	HanKFranK	Sun May 06 2007 04:41 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Bee-Beep	Wed Apr 04 2007 06:18 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	doug	Tue Mar 27 2007 04:33 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	madmumbler	Sun Mar 25 2007 01:24 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Tak	Sat Mar 24 2007 12:04 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	MetOc	Tue Mar 20 2007 05:53 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Hurricane29	Tue Mar 20 2007 06:56 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	VMI Bran	Mon Mar 12 2007 12:08 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	saluki	Tue Mar 13 2007 02:25 AM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	ftlaudbob	Thu Mar 15 2007 10:29 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Storm Cooper	Sun Mar 11 2007 08:20 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	allan	Sun Mar 11 2007 10:47 PM
Re: The 2007 Outlook	Myles	Mon Mar 12 2007 03:46 AM

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