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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 308 (Idalia) , Major: 308 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 308 (Idalia) Major: 308 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet
Mon May 21 2007 09:42 PM

So your thoughts are we will have a stronger ridge this season that may drive systems westward?

Yes that would be correct as to what I was discussing. Although, it should also be pointed out that having stronger ridging does not necessarily mean there won't be a recurve conduit because particulars regarding the planetary wave spacing (Long waves). If the stronger subtropical ridge in the means idea works out, however, it does slope that probability in favor of longer westerly trackers.

That aspect of the season is a ways off climatologically, though. For now we need to first focus on the western Caribbean up throught the Gulf and the waters surrounding Florida as we get into June/early July. It is interesting that the models have been spining up these suspicious entities in that region already - almost succeeding actually in getting one to verify as HankFrank pointed out.

We like to shy away from too much speculation here. It is safe to mention however that this kind of persistence in the modeling behavior suggests that they are picking up on some kind of numerical instability, though. That should be significant to warrant some interest as the climatology nears.

John

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 22 2007 09:58 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	HanKFranK	Mon May 21 2007 09:42 PM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	audienceofone	Fri May 25 2007 05:15 PM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	Hootie Hoo	Wed May 23 2007 08:49 PM
Re: overdevelopment tendency	ChessieStorm	Wed May 23 2007 09:39 AM
overdevelopment tendency	HanKFranK	Wed May 23 2007 09:31 AM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	typhoon_tip	Mon May 21 2007 09:42 PM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	Hurricane29	Mon May 21 2007 07:57 PM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	Trekman	Mon May 21 2007 07:04 PM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	typhoon_tip	Mon May 21 2007 04:20 PM
STill there in SW carib... looking not bad	LoisCane	Mon May 21 2007 12:28 PM
Re: More likely to develop in Epac with first storm than SW carib	dem05	Sun May 20 2007 07:44 PM
More likely to develop in Epac with first storm than SW carib	LoisCane	Sun May 20 2007 09:17 AM
Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet	TS2	Sun May 20 2007 09:05 AM

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