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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 310 (Idalia) , Major: 310 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 310 (Idalia) Major: 310 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#29 10:00 pm EDT
21.2N 89.2W
Wind: 65MPH
Pres: 989mb
Moving:
Wnw at 15 mph
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
overdevelopment tendency
      Wed May 23 2007 09:31 AM

clark said something about the gfs being tweaked in early may, that might have something to do with it's recent habit of overdoing low pressure in the tropics.
as far as the seasonal stuff being discussed... looks like the southeast is dry and that the feedback will promote ridging, while it's been wetter than normal further west. there has also been a trend with troughs splitting near the east coast. still months from the meat of the season, but i'm pondering over what this type of pattern would inflict on westward moving tropical systems.
really hard to make a whole lot out of that for now, as there's still a decent subtropical jet ripping by the southern periphery of the area. zonal ridging does seem to rule the day, but things haven't made their way up to their summertime latitudes as of yet.
HF 1431z23may

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet HanKFranK Wed May 23 2007 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet audienceofone   Fri May 25 2007 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet Hootie Hoo   Wed May 23 2007 08:49 PM
. * * Re: overdevelopment tendency ChessieStorm   Wed May 23 2007 09:39 AM
. * * overdevelopment tendency HanKFranK   Wed May 23 2007 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet typhoon_tip   Mon May 21 2007 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet Hurricane29   Mon May 21 2007 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet Trekman   Mon May 21 2007 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet typhoon_tip   Mon May 21 2007 04:20 PM
. * * STill there in SW carib... looking not bad LoisCane   Mon May 21 2007 12:28 PM
. * * Re: More likely to develop in Epac with first storm than SW carib dem05   Sun May 20 2007 07:44 PM
. * * More likely to develop in Epac with first storm than SW carib LoisCane   Sun May 20 2007 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Last Few Days of May, Probably Quiet TS2   Sun May 20 2007 09:05 AM

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