Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)

General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Verified CFHC User

Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, Florida
My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground.
      Sat May 26 2007 08:06 PM

8pm EDT Update- Convection continues to increase in areas of the disturbance. The System still looking good on Radar. The system will continue drifting NE over the next 24 hours. Shear is still strong in that area athough it's still forecasted to drop by Monday and that will help with slow development.

6:15pm EDT Uptate- Little bits of Convction has flared up over the past hour and if this system orginizes we could well see a Tropical Depression by Tomorrow. The Steering Currents are still weak so movent will be slow and to a NNE direction. The system is moving into an area of 30-50kts of wind shear which will cause problems int he development. Shear is still forecast to drop by Monday.

5:03pm EDT Update- SSD has a floater on the area of disturbed weather in the caribbean and has labled it 'Invest'. Normally after this happens the NRL has it up.

3pm EDT Update- Here we go watching the SW Caribbean again. A LLC circulation has formed over the SW Caribbean which has been gaining convection albeit in small amounts ever since this morning. Wind Shear in that area is around 5-30 knots with stronger shear to the North East. Steering Currents are extreamly weak over that area which will keep the LLC from moving and Wind Shear IS forecasted to drop significantly. We will no doubt see some VERY slow development into a Tropical Depression in the next coming days with the possible formation of Tropical Storm Barry.

Invest Area Rainbow Enhancement
Figure 1: Rainbow Image of 'Invest'
image Credit: NOAA

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameters
Figure 2: Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
Image Credit: NOAA.
My predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation from this system in the next couple of days are:

Tropical Depression-85%
Tropical Storm- 65%

Edited by danielw (Sat May 26 2007 11:39 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator

Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. TS2 Sat May 26 2007 08:06 PM
. * * Re: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. Hurricane29   Sun May 27 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. allan   Mon May 28 2007 09:02 AM
. * * Re: My Updates on SW Caribbean disturbance from Weather Underground. Storm Cooper   Tue May 29 2007 07:09 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Thread views: 8635

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center