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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 307 (Idalia) , Major: 307 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 307 (Idalia) Major: 307 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2341
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: New Area to Watch ???
Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM

Been watching. Wish to add to what Daniel just said, that while it is still dark one might have an easier time making out the llc which does appear to be present off the tip of the Yucatan using the Night IR , and zooming in on the feature.

It is worth noting that this is not the area favored by the models which were brewing something a bit further south of here and then moving it up either across or very near Florida. It is also worth keeping in mind that shear is still quite high in this region, although it has been trending down over the past day or so. (CIMSS Shear Analysis)

Also possibly complicating things for any would-be tropical cyclones, TD2E is rather close to this part of the Caribbean and GOM, as is another surface low which seems to have formed to 2E's southeast, inland near El Salvador. Not only does this leave three areas of low pressure competing for fuel sources and dominance in the region, but killer outflows can blow out of the associated thunderstorms, and snuff out any incipient disturbance.

Having qualified with all of that, shears have been coming down some while things have kept bubbling for several days now.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	danielw	Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Thu May 31 2007 09:32 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cchsweatherman	Thu May 31 2007 08:58 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	HURRICANELONNY	Thu May 31 2007 07:43 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Thu May 31 2007 07:41 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	GuppieGrouper	Thu May 31 2007 05:41 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cieldumort	Thu May 31 2007 03:28 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Bloodstar	Thu May 31 2007 02:35 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Clark	Thu May 31 2007 12:26 AM
Re: incipient system?	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 10:58 PM
Re: incipient system?	allan	Wed May 30 2007 10:38 PM
incipient system?	HanKFranK	Wed May 30 2007 10:23 PM
Re: A Couple of Notes	allan	Wed May 30 2007 08:28 PM
A Couple of Notes	Ed Dunham	Wed May 30 2007 07:43 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 07:33 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 07:25 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 06:32 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	typhoon_tip	Wed May 30 2007 05:51 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Bloodstar	Wed May 30 2007 05:18 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Wed May 30 2007 04:55 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	doug	Wed May 30 2007 04:47 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 03:30 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 03:19 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 02:29 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 02:17 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 02:15 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 02:12 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	madmumbler	Wed May 30 2007 02:11 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 01:59 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 01:51 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 01:35 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 01:29 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	madmumbler	Wed May 30 2007 01:07 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	cchsweatherman	Wed May 30 2007 11:12 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	hurricaneguy	Wed May 30 2007 10:52 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	NewWatcher	Wed May 30 2007 10:33 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 10:12 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	cchsweatherman	Wed May 30 2007 09:48 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 09:23 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	allan	Wed May 30 2007 09:18 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	flarrfan	Wed May 30 2007 08:59 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hootowl	Wed May 30 2007 07:17 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	cieldumort	Wed May 30 2007 05:12 AM
New Area to Watch ???	danielw	Wed May 30 2007 04:24 AM
Afternoon Model Updates-NWS Melbourne,FL	danielw	Tue May 29 2007 09:47 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	MissBecky	Tue May 29 2007 01:59 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Tue May 29 2007 01:35 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cchsweatherman	Tue May 29 2007 01:33 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Rich B	Tue May 29 2007 12:06 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	madmumbler	Tue May 29 2007 08:10 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	scottsvb	Mon May 28 2007 10:40 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	dem05	Mon May 28 2007 05:23 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	scottsvb	Mon May 28 2007 02:28 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Mon May 28 2007 01:49 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Mon May 28 2007 01:40 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Mon May 28 2007 01:14 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Rich B	Mon May 28 2007 05:18 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	typhoon_tip	Sun May 27 2007 11:30 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	LoisCane	Sun May 27 2007 06:07 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	typhoon_tip	Sun May 27 2007 03:18 PM
Re: i see it Clark but...	allan	Sun May 27 2007 08:57 AM
i see it Clark but...	LoisCane	Sun May 27 2007 08:17 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Clark	Sat May 26 2007 11:41 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	HURRICANELONNY	Sat May 26 2007 06:19 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Tony Cristaldi	Sat May 26 2007 06:11 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cieldumort	Sat May 26 2007 05:54 PM
Quick Update	danielw	Sat May 26 2007 02:33 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Clark	Sat May 26 2007 12:32 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	dem05	Sat May 26 2007 11:45 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Rich B	Sat May 26 2007 10:16 AM

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