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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch
Wed May 30 2007 09:51 PM

The consensus is that if something does evolve in the vicinity of the NW Caribbean and eastern Gulf it would be subtropical and nature. Looking at the regional synoptics this afternoon and balancing those observations against the majority Global model outlooks I would have to agree, and assert that hybrid is unavoidable unless certain parameters change.

Currently there is clearly a trough defined by cyclone large scale motion from off Old Mexico/TX, curving toward the NE over the Gulf. Winds in the mid and upper levels in this band of westerlies are humming along at some 40kts, and even 50kts in some soundings.

The Global models show only increasing tendencies for troughing in the region over the next few days, as the entire domain of N/A goes through a period of amplification. Later on...after Day 5 or perhaps 6, that period of amplification may very well wane into more zonal character, as the larger scale hemispheric teleconnectors are also suggesting (Elevating NAO/AO contracting the westerlies more polarward). But, our system of interest, whatever becomes of it, will be by the boards.

With this kind of synoptic evolution in the deep layer winds, this will be a shear system. The heavier QPF will be NE of whatever center defines. The best hope for this to develop further, given the described regime, is for it to smartly begin moving along with the flow, such that storm relative shear reduces the impact of the westerlies. Because there will be a trough, any cyclonic development will entrain backside drier continental air and probably some deeper layer dynamics more akin to baroclinic storm development, so there is less likelihood of this being of purer tropical form if it ever gets going.

As a side note: Nevertheless...we are greatful for whatever water is received in southern Florida. Lake Okee. has set a record this day for the lowest ever recorded lake level. Normal is 13 feet. It is now under 9! This is a big, big problem for the 10 million citizens that depend on it for their fresh water source. Let along the damage to the surrounding Everglades habitat.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	danielw	Wed May 30 2007 09:51 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Thu May 31 2007 01:32 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cchsweatherman	Thu May 31 2007 12:58 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	HURRICANELONNY	Thu May 31 2007 11:43 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Thu May 31 2007 11:41 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	GuppieGrouper	Thu May 31 2007 09:41 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cieldumort	Thu May 31 2007 07:28 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Bloodstar	Thu May 31 2007 06:35 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Clark	Thu May 31 2007 04:26 AM
Re: incipient system?	Hurricane29	Thu May 31 2007 02:58 AM
Re: incipient system?	allan	Thu May 31 2007 02:38 AM
incipient system?	HanKFranK	Thu May 31 2007 02:23 AM
Re: A Couple of Notes	allan	Thu May 31 2007 12:28 AM
A Couple of Notes	Ed Dunham	Wed May 30 2007 11:43 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 11:33 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 11:25 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 10:32 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	typhoon_tip	Wed May 30 2007 09:51 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Bloodstar	Wed May 30 2007 09:18 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Wed May 30 2007 08:55 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	doug	Wed May 30 2007 08:47 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 07:30 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 07:19 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 06:29 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 06:17 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 06:15 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 06:12 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	madmumbler	Wed May 30 2007 06:11 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Ron Basso	Wed May 30 2007 05:59 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 05:51 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 05:35 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	scottsvb	Wed May 30 2007 05:29 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	madmumbler	Wed May 30 2007 05:07 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	cchsweatherman	Wed May 30 2007 03:12 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	hurricaneguy	Wed May 30 2007 02:52 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	NewWatcher	Wed May 30 2007 02:33 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 02:12 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	cchsweatherman	Wed May 30 2007 01:48 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	Hurricane29	Wed May 30 2007 01:23 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	allan	Wed May 30 2007 01:18 PM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	flarrfan	Wed May 30 2007 12:59 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hootowl	Wed May 30 2007 11:17 AM
Re: New Area to Watch ???	cieldumort	Wed May 30 2007 09:12 AM
New Area to Watch ???	danielw	Wed May 30 2007 08:24 AM
Afternoon Model Updates-NWS Melbourne,FL	danielw	Wed May 30 2007 01:47 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	MissBecky	Tue May 29 2007 05:59 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Tue May 29 2007 05:35 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cchsweatherman	Tue May 29 2007 05:33 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Rich B	Tue May 29 2007 04:06 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	madmumbler	Tue May 29 2007 12:10 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	scottsvb	Tue May 29 2007 02:40 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	dem05	Mon May 28 2007 09:23 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	scottsvb	Mon May 28 2007 06:28 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Mon May 28 2007 05:49 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Hurricane29	Mon May 28 2007 05:40 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	allan	Mon May 28 2007 05:14 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Rich B	Mon May 28 2007 09:18 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	typhoon_tip	Mon May 28 2007 03:30 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	LoisCane	Sun May 27 2007 10:07 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	typhoon_tip	Sun May 27 2007 07:18 PM
Re: i see it Clark but...	allan	Sun May 27 2007 12:57 PM
i see it Clark but...	LoisCane	Sun May 27 2007 12:17 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Clark	Sun May 27 2007 03:41 AM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	HURRICANELONNY	Sat May 26 2007 10:19 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Tony Cristaldi	Sat May 26 2007 10:11 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	cieldumort	Sat May 26 2007 09:54 PM
Quick Update	danielw	Sat May 26 2007 06:33 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Clark	Sat May 26 2007 04:32 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	dem05	Sat May 26 2007 03:45 PM
Re: Memorial Day Weekend Area to Watch	Rich B	Sat May 26 2007 02:16 PM

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