SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUMP UP AGAINST THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON FUTURE TRACK OF THIS LOW. 12Z NAM TAKES IT NORTH ALL THE WAY TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINS JUST OFFSHORE. WHEREAS GFS HAS IT EJECTING NORTHEAST QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY. PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON MOVEMENT OF FEATURES ALOFT...KICKING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE GULF BY 00Z SUNDAY AND HAVING IT MERGE INTO A LARGER CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN...1-2 INCHES IF NOT A LITTLE MORE...TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE BEST RAIN CHANCES THEN. SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAINS WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS CIRRUS CANOPY BUILDS DOWN...SO POPS WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER QPFS. SW FLORIDA MAY GET THE EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE BUT BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE COULD KEEP CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA DRIER FRIDAY.
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY...WHEREAS MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CROSSING CENTRAL FL SAT NIGHT INTO LATE SUN WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDING DOWN SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN.
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