BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB...IS LOCATED ABOUT 75 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN GULF. THIS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A BIG AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 79W-87W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THIS STRONGER ACTIVITY PULLING N INTO RADAR RANGE. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING TO THE N/NE INTO A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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