...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT THOUGH GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH DEEPENING TREND BY 00Z. SHOULD STILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A LATE NIGHT SHOWER ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.
FRIDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC`S LEAD AND TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOVING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E CENTRAL FL. BELIEVE THE SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD (SIMILAR TO HPC/ECM PROGS) BUT SHOULD SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PM HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS AND GOOD CHC NRN SECTIONS. ALSO...TRENDED ABOVE GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 80S WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. STILL A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH IN THE GULF WITH GFS SHOWING 100KTS+ ACROSS THE NE GULF DRIVING ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH FOR THE SPEED/TRACK OF MOISTURE LIFTING N/NE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ERN CUBA AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MAY DEVELOP.
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MODELS STILL EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO THE HYBRID SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN...MAINLY DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH INITIALIZATION AND THE EFFECT OF QPF ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOST APPROPRIATE COURSE OF ACTION CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH FOLLOWS THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE ECMWF. NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER AND WILL BE DISREGARDED. GFS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRI EVENING-SAT MORNING (ASSUMING ECMWF TIMING) AS THE SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SREF SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...WHICH NO DOUBT WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED FRI NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST DYNAMICS PUSHING OFFSHORE...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN (BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH) AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
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