Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season

Since I'm not at work, here's what the crew at the office wrote about the system this afternoon...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10

...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. MODELS SHOW LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT
THOUGH GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH DEEPENING TREND BY 00Z. SHOULD STILL
SEE CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A LATE NIGHT
SHOWER ACROSS SRN SECTIONS.

FRIDAY...HAVE FOLLOWED HPC`S LEAD AND TRENDED SLOWER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS MOVING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E CENTRAL FL. BELIEVE
THE SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD (SIMILAR TO HPC/ECM PROGS) BUT SHOULD SPREAD SOME RAIN
INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PM HOURS. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS AND GOOD CHC NRN SECTIONS.
ALSO...TRENDED ABOVE GFS MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LWR-MID 80S WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. STILL A DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH IN THE GULF WITH
GFS SHOWING 100KTS+ ACROSS THE NE GULF DRIVING ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYER
LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH FOR THE SPEED/TRACK OF MOISTURE LIFTING N/NE
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ERN CUBA AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MAY DEVELOP.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MODELS STILL EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
DISPARITY WITH REGARD TO THE HYBRID SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN...MAINLY
DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH INITIALIZATION AND THE EFFECT OF QPF ON THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOST APPROPRIATE COURSE OF ACTION
CONTINUES TO BE A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH FOLLOWS THE GENERAL
TRACK OF THE ECMWF. NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER AND WILL
BE DISREGARDED. GFS IS LIKELY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FRI
EVENING-SAT MORNING (ASSUMING ECMWF TIMING) AS THE SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SREF
SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE...WHICH NO DOUBT WILL BE
BENEFICIAL TO THE DROUGHT SITUATION. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE ELEVATED FRI NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST
DYNAMICS PUSHING OFFSHORE...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN (BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH) AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US