The opportunities for this invest to develop are likely one the wane this evening.
Point 1.) The thunderstorm development mentioned in recent posts is impressive. However, for tropical development, you would really need to see this development happening closer to the center, which is up toward Cozumel. Thunderstormson the far out skirts, such as the ones over Central America (Hondorus) will not contribute to the spin up of a low level warm core center. Until something gets closer to the identified area of lowest pressures, this is likely a bust for tropical development.
Point 2.) Upper air wind analysis and water vapor would show that the most conducive area for development is around Jamaica. And the system is not there. More important than that fact is this one, the trough is now digging deeper into the western gulf. In this particular situation...the southwesterlies are identified as speeding up as they are moving across the Yucatan toward the invest. If this trend continues toward the Low, rain storms forming around the low pressure area near Cozumel will likely get lopped off at the knees. This can be identified by the change of direction in the cloud tops over the Yucatan Penninsula on the water vapor in recent hours (First Link zoomed image). On a wider angle the digging trough can be seenon the second link. Looks like the show is over for a true tropical/subtropical system on this one...Shear is gonna be on the increase now. Floater WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html Western Atlantic WV Loop Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
I know that I'm pretty excited to see heavy rain chances with little to no tropical development!
0 registered and 159 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 21380
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season
Edit
Reply
Quote
