Western Caribbean on the Day Before Hurricane Season

On further satellite analysis and deeper insight, the opportunity to give this the benifit of the doubt for true tropical and/or subtropical development. It is just not there.

1.) Going back to the Water Vapor Floater (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html) Click on the following on the menu bar at the top of the image: Lat-Lon and HDW-High. Use the Lattitude and Longitude to locate the following approximate coordinates: 20.0N and 92.5W then 25N and 85W. Along this line you will notice a blue streak of clouds. This is along the line of maximum Southwesterly shear and the HDW-High wind barbs indicate winds on the order of 30-50 knots. This is no good, especially considering the close proximity and the fact that the trough is digging closer.

2.) Low level center reformation: The opportunity for this low to reform farther south does not exist because of the following observations a.) The southerly flow between "convective area A" South of Cuba and"Convective Area B" iswell established.(Note the band looking features oriented from North to south between the two.
Wide Image Shortwave Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
Closeup Shortwave: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
The gap may fill with thunderstorms, but the prevailing southerly flow which is resulting from a combination of the low near Cozumel and the trades from the Carribean will not allow for reformation under these thundersotrms.In fact these thunderstorms are the result of an interaction between conflicting weather systems. Finally, if intense thunderstorms were existing asthey should in this case...in "this neck of the woods"...any low pressure reformation would likely occur Northeastward in this type of environment. Where the low literally chases the thunderstorms as they try to peel away. Two perfect examples of this baroclinic type of event are HurricaneEarlin1998 and Tropical Storm Gabrielle in 2001. On thisone,thet-storms areon the south and east side, sothe reformation appears moot.

3.) On the trough digging south, as a tutorial for future systems that may develop in June or July this year out of the NW Carribean or Eastern GoMex.,this pattern would have been more favorable for development (once in the Gulf) if this had been a southward digging or Southwestward digging cutoff low (Say around the BOC or west of that) versus a trough like we have now. The eastern gulf would have been in a more favorable/marginal outflow/diffluent flow. The other idea is to watch for a trough the has its axis at 95W or slightly further west during June or July. This one is at about 90W, and the gulf isn't big enough for the two of these features.

With that said, once again, some drought busting help is on the way. YEAH!!!!

Edited by dem05 (Thu May 31 2007 11:50 PM)

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