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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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typhoon_tip
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Posts: 576
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
      Fri Jun 01 2007 04:22 AM

From what I am observing of satellite trends, the curent system of interest is already attempting a transition to hybrid/baroclinic morphology (phase transition). The trough digging will likely, from this point forward, dictate this system's physical evolution. This is thus transforming into an unusual circumstance of sorts, in that for such an extremely low latitude, we are seeing cyclogenesis for jet mechanics working on horizontally induced theta-e gradients, at such at late date.

However, there will still be some residual tropical characteristics lingering considering origin. In situ proximity to native environment over the northwest Caribbean and southeast Gulf means more latent heat input than this type of trough really needs.

There may also be specific (detailed) windows of opportunity as discussed by my self in particular, but also Tony, as this entity begins to migrate north by northeast toward Florida and beyond.

Caveat: There is always an air of uncertainty when dealing with systems in this particular lat/lon, at this time of year. There is sufficient oceanic heat content should the environment closer to the Yuc Penn couple up between atm and SST. Namely, if this system remains very shallow, there is a "slim" chance it could be left behind. I have seen at least one (more though) model runs that showed chances for spin ups long after this major migration out of the area. That could be an indication that the area remains fertile post trough lifting out.
...A bit more speculation than perhaps wanted...apologies. It is worth noting however, as it does deal with the system currently in question.

Clark has also given a fine run down in his blog entry...I suggest you read it for educational and current conceptual clarity.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Jun 01 2007 04:26 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today MikeCAdministrator Fri Jun 01 2007 04:22 AM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 01 2007 10:48 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 01 2007 10:44 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today dem05   Fri Jun 01 2007 10:12 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 01 2007 10:09 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today vineyardsaker   Fri Jun 01 2007 10:07 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today typhoon_tip   Fri Jun 01 2007 09:57 PM
. * * New Vortex.... wxman007   Fri Jun 01 2007 09:36 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:59 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Steve   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Rabbit   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:39 PM
. * * Re: now Barry on the Navy site Steve   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM
. * * now Barry on the Navy site Bloodstar   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today hurricaneguy   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Steve   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:26 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? HURRICANELONNY   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:22 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Steve   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:17 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? HCW   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:03 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Clark   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:00 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Rabbit   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:58 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? West FL Jess   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:56 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:53 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:44 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Jamiewx   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:26 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? allan   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:25 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:21 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Clark   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:18 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:11 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:07 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? Ronn   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:02 PM
. * * Re: isn't it moving fast? scottsvb   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:02 PM
. * * isn't it moving fast? LoisCane   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:35 PM
. * * Re: circulation center on visible allan   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:30 PM
. * * Re: circulation center on visible scottsvb   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:27 PM
. * * Re: circulation center on visible LoisCane   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:19 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Ronn   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:18 PM
. * * Re: circulation center on visible Ed in Va   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:10 PM
. * * Re: circulation center on visible allan   Fri Jun 01 2007 05:08 PM
. * * circulation center on visible LoisCane   Fri Jun 01 2007 04:51 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Rich B   Fri Jun 01 2007 04:20 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today madmumbler   Fri Jun 01 2007 03:41 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today JFTD3   Fri Jun 01 2007 03:26 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Ronn   Fri Jun 01 2007 02:29 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today NewWatcher   Fri Jun 01 2007 01:22 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today madmumbler   Fri Jun 01 2007 01:19 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 01 2007 12:56 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today NewWatcher   Fri Jun 01 2007 12:49 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today allan   Fri Jun 01 2007 12:48 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today madmumbler   Fri Jun 01 2007 12:43 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Ed in Va   Fri Jun 01 2007 12:27 PM
. * * Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today typhoon_tip   Fri Jun 01 2007 04:22 AM

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