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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
Fri Jun 01 2007 09:57 PM

I am not completely convinced that what we are seeing out there is a pure tropical system.

Be that as it may...this was the one aspect we discussed yesterday and the day before, which could cause better development; we have seen that come to pass. The system begin a concerted NNE motion in such a way as to lower the impact of the westerly shear upon its vertical motion field (embedded convection). Shear is present however, despite this storm relative shear related reduction and that is why we see the majority of the convection displaced(ing) NE of the center -- it is being tipped and pulled NE of the center.

Note: The 12z ECM depicted tightly bounded cyclone nearing the bend area of the Gulf Coast of Florida. This was a new idea along the modeling history for this system, as most models maintained an amorpous broad bag of closed pressure pattern with more than one sub-vortices contained; then consolidating later on into an East Coast system. That latter behavior is in tact as expecation still goes, but, this subtle suggestion prior to Gulf Coastal landfall, by the ECM, just got a confidence boost for seeing this surprise jump to TS status. As long as the system keeps moving along with the deeper layer westerlies the way it is, it has a chance -- albeit lower rather than higher -- at developing a bit more.

It is important to note that 67kt at flight level extrapolates (usually) to around 50mph at the surface, which is just getting interesting as far as being more than just a breezy day.
-- Flood preparedness
-- Tornado awareness
-- Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry. Other than some beach erosion, surge will fairly low impact. Wind will be gusty near the core and where heavier convective elements transfer some of that flight level momentum into the boundary layer. Otherwise, not a very big concern there either.

Barry will be interesting once it crosses Florida and interact with the dynamics of a trough amplification. It should be well involved with cyclone phase transition at that time.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Jun 01 2007 09:59 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	MikeC	Fri Jun 01 2007 09:57 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Storm Cooper	Fri Jun 01 2007 10:48 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	CoconutCandy	Fri Jun 01 2007 10:44 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	dem05	Fri Jun 01 2007 10:12 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Storm Cooper	Fri Jun 01 2007 10:09 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	vineyardsaker	Fri Jun 01 2007 10:07 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	typhoon_tip	Fri Jun 01 2007 09:57 PM
New Vortex....	wxman007	Fri Jun 01 2007 09:36 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:59 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Storm Cooper	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Steve	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:45 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Rabbit	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:39 PM
Re: now Barry on the Navy site	Steve	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM
now Barry on the Navy site	Bloodstar	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	hurricaneguy	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:34 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Steve	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:26 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	HURRICANELONNY	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:22 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Steve	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:17 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	HCW	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:03 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Clark	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:00 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 01 2007 08:00 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Rabbit	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:58 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	West FL Jess	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:56 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:53 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:44 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Jamiewx	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:26 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	allan	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:25 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:21 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Clark	Fri Jun 01 2007 07:18 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 01 2007 06:11 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Clark	Fri Jun 01 2007 06:07 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	Ronn	Fri Jun 01 2007 06:02 PM
Re: isn't it moving fast?	scottsvb	Fri Jun 01 2007 06:02 PM
isn't it moving fast?	LoisCane	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:35 PM
Re: circulation center on visible	allan	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:30 PM
Re: circulation center on visible	scottsvb	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:27 PM
Re: circulation center on visible	LoisCane	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:19 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Ronn	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:18 PM
Re: circulation center on visible	Ed in Va	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:10 PM
Re: circulation center on visible	allan	Fri Jun 01 2007 05:08 PM
circulation center on visible	LoisCane	Fri Jun 01 2007 04:51 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Rich B	Fri Jun 01 2007 04:20 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	madmumbler	Fri Jun 01 2007 03:41 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	JFTD3	Fri Jun 01 2007 03:26 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Ronn	Fri Jun 01 2007 02:29 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	NewWatcher	Fri Jun 01 2007 01:22 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	madmumbler	Fri Jun 01 2007 01:19 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	CoconutCandy	Fri Jun 01 2007 12:56 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	NewWatcher	Fri Jun 01 2007 12:49 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	allan	Fri Jun 01 2007 12:48 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	madmumbler	Fri Jun 01 2007 12:43 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	Ed in Va	Fri Jun 01 2007 12:27 PM
Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today	typhoon_tip	Fri Jun 01 2007 04:22 AM

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