HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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assault of the midget B-storms
Sat Jun 02 2007 03:11 PM
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barry's center became elongated in the early morning hours and it is steadily undergoing extratropical transition. the deep convection bursting (maybe due to increased friction at the coast) this morning probably helped stay any itchy trigger fingers at the nhc to call it extratropical.. recon still shows it as weak warm-cored for now. my folks are taking a beach trip to pawley's island, and it just figures that after weeks of dry, warm (but not really hot) weather an ex-tropical storm is going to shellack them on day one. barry's legacy will be mostly favorable, with a decent rainfall blanketing some of the most parched areas in the southeast, and a quick advance precluding the kinds of problems a slow moving tropical storm can cause. might be a few severe cells in the right front quad with daytime heating and the clear dry air intrusion into the core across north florida today, but probably nothing else of note. the folks on the carolina beaches will need to be wary in the surf, though.
barbara is fairly weak and coming in with little momentum... i greatly doubt that anything of the center will survive across central america. the system is fairly small and the threat of severe rainfall should also be limited. the nhc guys already noted a tilt with height, so it'll probably just decouple and wash out fairly quickly. the conditions on the atlantic side would be fairly favorable, but there isn't a strong convergence point or disturbance there to take advantage of things, as barry took most of the good low-level dynamics out with it.
next chance of anything interesting is the next northward moisture surge from the western caribbean, scheduled for about mid-month, which the gfs keeps insisting will happen run-to-run. considering it's overall long-range performance with barry, i'd say there's a reasonable chance we'll be watching another feature of interest around about june 13-15.
the pattern is de-amplifying, so there isn't much else of a chance of more tropical development.
HF 1611z02june
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