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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re:Clark
      Sat Jun 02 2007 07:42 PM

One thing to add to the performance of the ECM is that it latched onto height falls over the GOMEX well ahead of the GFS. From my SAT 5/26 AFD...


"THU-SAT...MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD/HIGH COVERAGE RAIN EVENT LATE NEXT WEEK AS
WE HEAD INTO JUNE. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OVER THE GOMEX BY BOTH THE 00Z ECM AND
12Z GFS. ECM IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH BOTH THE H50 TROUGH...AND THE
SURFACE RESPONSE...HOWEVER BOTH SOLNS SHOW ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO ALLOW
DEEP LYR FLOW TO ACQUIRE SIGNIF SRLY COMPONENT TO ADVECT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO FL. BY FRI/SAT...THE ECM SHOWS A MORE
CUTOFF/SLOWER SOLN...WHILE THE GFS LINKS THIS WEAKNESS UP WITH THE
NRN STREAM...CREATING A BROADER MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. IT'S
HARD TO IGNORE THAT THE GFS HAS OFTEN FOLLOWED THE ECM'S LEAD WITH
THE CURRENT PATTERN...AND IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT
BTWN THE TWO...THOUGH IT STILL IS IN THE DAY 4+ TIME FRAME."


Additionally, I distinctly remember much stronger height falls working toward the GOMEX on the H144/H168 panels of the FRI 5/25/12Z run of the ECMWF compared to the corresponding run of the GFS...hence the "IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT BTWN THE TWO" comment from this AFD, issued the following day. More kudos for the ECM, which is usually the stellar performer amongst the globals in its depiction of the H50 height fields over NOAM/CONUS.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator Sat Jun 02 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Something? Bloodstar   Mon Jun 04 2007 03:40 PM
. * * Something? ftlaudbob   Mon Jun 04 2007 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Hugh   Sun Jun 03 2007 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico nc_wx_watcher   Sun Jun 03 2007 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Hugh   Sun Jun 03 2007 12:51 PM
. * * Secondary Circulation ?? CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 03 2007 07:54 AM
. * * Re:Clark Rich B   Sun Jun 03 2007 07:31 AM
. * * Re:Clark Tony Cristaldi   Sat Jun 02 2007 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico WeatherNut   Sat Jun 02 2007 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Clark   Sat Jun 02 2007 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico madmumbler   Sat Jun 02 2007 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico allan   Sat Jun 02 2007 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico ChessieStorm   Sat Jun 02 2007 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Ronn   Sat Jun 02 2007 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico madmumbler   Sat Jun 02 2007 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico scottsvb   Sat Jun 02 2007 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Bev   Fri Jun 01 2007 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico swimaway19   Fri Jun 01 2007 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico ChessieStorm   Fri Jun 01 2007 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico swimaway19   Fri Jun 01 2007 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Clark   Fri Jun 01 2007 09:52 PM
. * * Area Forecast Dicussion Updates danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2007 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Update h2ocean   Fri Jun 01 2007 09:34 PM
. * * Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2007 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Ronn   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Hugh   Fri Jun 01 2007 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico CoconutCandy   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Hurricane29   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico clueless   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Rich B   Fri Jun 01 2007 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico jessiej   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico hurricane expert   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico Hurricane29   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Day 1. Tropical Storm Barry Forms in Gulf of Mexico dem05   Fri Jun 01 2007 06:13 PM

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