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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2007 News Talkbacks
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Possible Development near Bahamas
      Thu Jun 07 2007 06:16 PM

Both the NAM & GFS are developing a weak low pressure near the Bahamas. Is this the next tropical system to watch? Big blow-up of convection in the Bahamas today with some cc turning on VIS SAT. NWS Tampa Bay discusses it below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM ON THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CENTRAL AREAS...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN FA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THAT REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO ON FRIDAY...BUT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA SATURDAY
IS UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ENERGY/ORGANIZATION REMAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. ATTM...WILL TREND POPS SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY. NAMELY...GFS AND NAM...WHICH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRES IN VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...
DRIFT IT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON WHERE THIS WAVE WILL BE DRIFTING
AND WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PCPN WOULD OCCUR.

--------------------
RJB

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Barry Gone, Quiet Again MikeCAdministrator Thu Jun 07 2007 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts BillD   Fri Jun 15 2007 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts BillD   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Hurricane29   Fri Jun 15 2007 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts audienceofone   Thu Jun 14 2007 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts cieldumort   Thu Jun 14 2007 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jun 14 2007 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Hurricane29   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts scottsvb   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts allan   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts Ricreig   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts doug   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Discussion~excerpts nc_wx_watcher   Thu Jun 14 2007 01:10 PM
. * * Tropical Discussion~excerpts danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 14 2007 03:56 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again dem05   Thu Jun 14 2007 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again nc_wx_watcher   Wed Jun 13 2007 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again cieldumort   Wed Jun 13 2007 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again typhoon_tip   Wed Jun 13 2007 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again madmumbler   Tue Jun 12 2007 09:36 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Ed in Va   Tue Jun 12 2007 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again typhoon_tip   Tue Jun 12 2007 04:39 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Mon Jun 11 2007 06:45 PM
. * * Re: geez doug   Mon Jun 11 2007 02:38 PM
. * * Re: geez cchsweatherman   Mon Jun 11 2007 12:01 PM
. * * Re: geez Hugh   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:58 PM
. * * Re: geez nc_wx_watcher   Sun Jun 10 2007 12:27 PM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Sun Jun 10 2007 10:03 AM
. * * Re: geez cieldumort   Sun Jun 10 2007 02:40 AM
. * * geez HanKFranK   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Week Ahead HanKFranK   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Cat 5orBust   Sun Jun 10 2007 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Week Ahead Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 10 2007 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Week Ahead madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead cieldumort   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead BillD   Sat Jun 09 2007 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Week Ahead madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Sat Jun 09 2007 01:03 PM
. * * Week Ahead danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 09 2007 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas typhoon_tip   Sat Jun 09 2007 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Steve   Sat Jun 09 2007 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Steve   Fri Jun 08 2007 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Fri Jun 08 2007 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 08 2007 03:25 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas West FL Jess   Fri Jun 08 2007 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas madmumbler   Fri Jun 08 2007 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 07 2007 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 07 2007 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Hurricane29   Thu Jun 07 2007 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 07 2007 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development near Bahamas Ron Basso   Thu Jun 07 2007 06:16 PM
. * * graveyard HanKFranK   Wed Jun 06 2007 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Barry Gone, Quiet Again Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 06 2007 09:16 PM

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