danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Week Ahead
Sat Jun 09 2007 10:54 AM
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Checking the morning Area Forecast Discussions- from San Juan, PR through FL and west to New Orleans,LA.
Only New Orleans gave the GFS model a mention for the week ahead in the Tropics area.
Excerpt from AFD NWS Slidell,LA
GFS GENERATES A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE... PERHAPS SOMETHING MORE DEVELOPED... FRIDAY NEAR WEST CUBA.
GFS HAS A KNACK FOR DEVELOPING SPURIOUS SYSTEMS...BUT PATTERN SORT OF FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WAVE AT THAT LATITUDE.
WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS... BUT LOCALLY THE RESULT COULD BE A TIGHTENING OF EASTERLY GRADIENT FOR NEXT WEEK THAT MAY RENEW HIGH TIDE ISSUES IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&max=61 (time sensitve link)
Current water vapor and IR imagery indicate an area of Thunderstorms to the east of the Windward Islands. Persistance over the last 7 hours. (through 10Z 6am EDT). To the west of this area in the Eastern/Central Caribbean Sea is another weaker wave, barely visible on most imagery. These locations are evident in the "thumbnail" view in the top right corner of the page.
With the Windward Isles area being the more pronounced. I checked the morning Tropical Weather Discussion and TPC mentions these two areas, along with yet another wave near longitude 10W, just off the African Coast.
Using the 06Z upper air maps (great tools) one can see that the lower 850mb (5000ft level) winds in the Caribbean are easterly at 10kts. (The bold '10' is the windspeed). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg
However the upper level, 200mb winds are from the west at 30 kts. (read as 'wind shear', blowing the tops off of the higher clouds). http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
POINT SALINES,GRENADA TGPY 12.00N 061.47W
09/1000Z 06010KT 6000ft -SHRA VCSH BKN015 BKN280 27/25 Q1012 JP-N/NE
(wind NE at 11mph, Clouds at 6000ft, rain showers and showers in the vicinity, broken cloud layer at 1500ft and at 2800ft, temp 27C/ dew point 25C barometer 1012mb and lightning observed North through NE
(wind has changed from due East at 08Z, ENE at 09Z, and now NE at 10Z. Termed a backing wind, or counterclockwise wind.)
Observations are not entirely indicative of a tropical wave at Grenada.. but are consistant with most tropical wave observations.
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